Looking at the political drama in Sri Lanka, China seems to be aggressively challenging India's dominance in South Asia. A sneak peak into Lanka case.
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In the last few months, Sri Lanka, considered an island in the Indian Ocean, has been plagued by internal floods. That is why the political turmoil in the 'House of Cards' webseries on Netflix has been felt in Sri Lanka for the past two months. On October 26, President Maitripal Sirisena abruptly removed Ranil Wickremesinghe and handed over the reins of office to Mahinda Rajapaksa. Sirisena then took the decision to dissolve parliament in his own right, and there was a strong reaction in international circles.
On December 13, the Supreme Court ruled that Sirisena's decision to dissolve parliament was illegal and forced him to hand over the PM's job to Vikramasinghe. The international community also expressed its views during the seven-week thriller. Officials from the South Block in Delhi and the Foreign Office in Beijing were keeping a close eye on the political situation in Sri Lanka, which is geopolitically strategically located in the Indian Ocean. After Rajapaksa's appointment, Chinese President Xi Jinping congratulated his Rajapaksa, but after Wickremesinghe's return, China itself remained silent on foreign affairs. "We will have a cooperative relationship with the new government in Sri Lanka in three days," he said.
India and Sri Lanka have had a long-standing relationship, with a geographical distance of only 20 km. Therefore, it is certain that the developments in Sri Lanka will affect India. That is why it is so important for us to keep an eye on this thrilling drama in Sri Lanka.
Sri Lanka has a history of acting dictatorships. This was the culmination of Rajapaksa's career. Sirisena has pledged the same. In fact, Sirisena's slogan was to cut the powers of the acting president by opposing the Rajapaksa's approach. In 1915, under the leadership of Vikramasinghe, Parliament passed the 19th Amendment stating that the President would not have the power to dismiss Parliament. Sirisena defamed the amendment approved by his own government.
Its origin is in the different ideology of both the parties. That is why even though Sirisena and Vikramasinghe's alliance succeeded in gaining power in 2015, they have been at loggerheads since the beginning. In terms of ideology, Sirisena is a supporter of economic socialism and Sinhalese nationalism, while the ideology of Wickremesinghe's United National Party is right-leaning. Therefore, these opposition parties came together in the run-up to the elections to keep the Rajapaksa away.
The rift between the two parties came to a head in mid-October (October 16). In a cabinet meeting, Sirisena made a sensational allegation that India's intelligence had plotted his assassination and that ministers close to Vikramasinghe were involved. The beginning of the drama in Sri Lanka can be traced back to this incident. Although India denied this and Narendra Modi assured Sirisena, he was not satisfied. As a result, Sirisena's United People's Freedom Alliance withdrew its support to the Wickremesinghe government and Rajapaksa was sworn in as Prime Minister within the next hour.
China, Burundi and Pakistan recognized Rajapaksa as prime minister. Unwilling to convene a session of Parliament, Sirisena dismissed Parliament on November 9 and ordered early elections on January 5. On November 13, the Supreme Court adjourned the decision to dissolve Parliament. As a result, the no-confidence motion tabled in Parliament on November 14 was passed by a majority. Sirisena, in its prerogative, refused to accept the resolution on the grounds that it did not conform to parliamentary tradition.
Sirisena also rejected the second no-confidence motion passed on November 16. In order to get the support of the people in this crisis, Rajapaksa ordered to reduce fuel prices and income tax. On December 3, the court restrained the Rajapaksa and his ministers from working. On December 13, the Supreme Court declared Sirisena's decision to dissolve parliament invalid. Before the end of four and a half years of Parliament, the President decided that Parliament could not be dissolved. This left Rajapaksa with no choice but to resign as Prime Minister and Sirisena to re-appoint Vikramasinghe as Prime Minister.
The circle of political instability formed on 26 October ended 'temporarily' on 16 December. But will Rajapaksa's political ambitions, Sirisena's declining credibility and Vikram Singh's government, backed by Tamil parties, complete its term? There are real doubts about this.
China and India are key players in the Sri Lankan drama. Therefore, the past and future of this political crisis cannot be understood without understanding their role in this drama.
During Rajapaksa's presidency, Sri Lanka was completely under Chinese control. When he came to power, Sirisena had assured the Sri Lankan people that he would liberate Sri Lanka from Chinese control. However, after failing to repay the loan, Sirisena handed over the 99-year lease of Hambantota port and port management to China. Of course, knowing the 'strategic importance' of this commercially insignificant port, the decision raised alarm bells in the US and India.
The port of Hambantota became a source of contention between Wickremesinghe and Sirisena. That is why it is not surprising that after Sirisena removed Vikramasinghe and swore in Rajapaksa as the Prime Minister, China congratulated the new Prime Minister. Rajapaksa had visited China seven times during his presidency. In particular, the Rajapaksa, which has been in power for only 50 days, has agreed to set up two infrastructure projects with China, which shows the closeness between him and China. This is why China's congratulations to Rajapaksa are significant.
It is safe to say that India has been the undisputed ruler of South Asia since the 19th century, but the drama in Sri Lanka indicates that China is flourishing in this geographical area. Therefore, it has to be said that India, which had agreed to intervene in Sri Lanka in the nineties, had adopted Saburi's policy without displaying its strength this time. Not only is it beneficial for China to come to power, but it is also beneficial for the rulers in Beijing to have an atmosphere of constant internal political conflict / instability in various South Asian countries. Taking advantage of this political instability, China can easily make its own interests possible.
That is why Wickremesinghe's party had alleged that the Rajapaksa wanted to buy MPs in Parliament on the strength of China's economic power. China has the power to teach the world the lessons of how to use its economic power in the volatile political situation of a country. At present, it is not possible for India to challenge China's economic power on its own. In fact, it was an important reason for Sirisena to turn to China. That is why India needs to undertake major domestic economic reforms. We have to keep in mind that the battle for supremacy in Asia is more military, technological, geopolitical, or even more economic.
The political crisis in Sri Lanka has so far been averted. However, given the personal bitterness between Sirisena and Vikramasinghe, the power struggle between them seems unlikely to end in the near future. While Sirisena has had to accept public outrage over his decisions, political instability is inevitable if Wickremesinghe's party revives the central bank's 'bond scam' in the near future. Moreover, the Tamil party may be hoping to recover the support it has given to the Vikramasinghe government.
In the post-war period, Tamil issues will be awaited for political settlement and fulfillment of promises of reconciliation. Moreover, the issue of a new constitution will come to the fore. Therefore, the Vikramasinghe government cannot take the support of the Tamil party. Moreover, the ethnic conflict has reached the fifth in Sri Lanka. Against the backdrop of the demands of the Tamil parties, there may be attempts by the Rajapaksa faction to incite ethnic strife for immediate political gain in the near future.
Aggressive Buddhist nationalism by the Rajapaksa may be repeated in the near future and the Muslim community may have to face an atmosphere of fear ‘once again’. There is no denying the possibility of instability until the proposed presidential and parliamentary elections in 2020. Rajapaksa is trying to get the election held as soon as possible. The influence / charisma of the former president is greater than that of Sirisena. They will be intent on taking advantage of it.
India did not support any one group during the crisis. However, after the court's decision on December 13, India had appealed for loyalty to democratic values and indicated that it was leaning towards Wickremesinghe. India is aware that the Rajapaksa is popular among the majority Sinhalese population and the possibility of its return to power in the near future cannot be ruled out. Therefore, in the current political crisis, even if the Rajapaksas feel defeated, India will no doubt defeat them. It is significant in this regard that Rajapaksa had visited India and held talks with Modi on October 26, just a month and a half before the coup in Colombo. Of course, in all these conflicts, there should be no doubt that Sirisena personally suffered the most.
It is fair to say that India has learned a lesson from the intransigence in Nepal and has taken steps with great restraint in the Maldives and Sri Lanka. Democracy and China have a figure of 36. But there should be no doubt that in the future, China will focus on playing its cards right. That is why it is imperative for India to align like-minded friends to face China's power. That is why India needs the support of Japan and the United States. Besides, India is now realizing that South Asia needs internal connectivity.
Sri Lanka's geographically strategic location in the Indo-Pacific region is crucial for India's 'Neighborhood First' policy. Emphasis is being placed on investment in major infrastructure projects, especially in ports, railways and airports. Which will enhance the connectivity with the Indian Ocean region. The political drama in Sri Lanka illustrates China's growing proliferation and aggressive strategy in South Asia.
Although Modi and Jinping conveyed a message of friendship at the Wuhan Summit, it is clear that international politics ultimately revolves around national interests. Also, the play hints that the coming geopolitical and economic times will be difficult for India.
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