It is important to understand the G-20 in the context of new nationalist thinking, new technologies, changing power equations around the world.
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Last week, the heads of the world's 20 most important economies gathered in Argentina for the G20 summit. It is important to understand this meeting in the context of the new direction taken by nationalist thinking around the world, the changing balance of power due to new inventions in technology, and the changing global balance of power as a whole.
Why G20 is important?
To understand the G-20, one must briefly understand its history and its significance. The origins of the G-20 can be traced back to a meeting of then-powerful G-7 finance ministers in 1999. However, the G20 platform gained real political significance after the 2008 financial crisis. As the 21st-century global economy is not reflected in the economic decision-making process, emerging economic powers have called for regime change, and the G20 summit began in 2009.
G20 member countries represent two-thirds of the world's population and 75% of world trade. The political leadership of only a handful of economic powers makes decisions that affect more than 170 other countries. That is why it is important to keep an eye on the developments on this platform. The main program of the conference in Argentina was to build a consensus for justice and sustainable development. In order to understand the direction of current world politics, it is necessary to keep track of the bilateral and tripartite meetings held in connection with this conference, as well as other meetings.
The conference will have to be analyzed to understand the outburst between the West and Russia over the Ukraine issue, the needle of suspicion that turned to the Saudi prince after the assassination of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, and the fear of a trade war between China and the US. Simultaneously, two separate trilateral meetings with China and Russia as well as Japan and the US are also important for India. As the Diamond Jubilee of Indian Independence is celebrated in 2022, India will have the honor of hosting this conference. Therefore, it can be said that this host position has lost its nerve in the crown of New Delhi.
Cryptocurrencies and manifestos
Cryptocurrency has been pushed by all countries. It threatens the economic sovereignty of all. A joint statement on the regulation of cryptocurrencies was unanimously approved in a statement issued at the end of the conference. However, there was skepticism until the end as to whether the joint statement was published due to climate change and the tough stance taken by the US on global trade issues. Finally, it was decided to discuss the reform of the World Trade Organization at the next meeting in Japan. But until the end, protectionism in world trade was not mentioned in the manifesto due to Trump's obstruction of America First.
The United States has not relinquished its position on the Paris climate agreement. Therefore, the declaration states that 19 out of 20 members, excluding the United States, are bound by the Paris Climate Agreement. Of course, the declaration has been welcomed by environmental organizations as other countries have taken a clear stand on the issue. He also expressed optimism that the US would change its role in the near future. Trump has continued to push the US-sponsored liberal system. Still, the US economy was the strongest, and others had to follow suit. But given the policies of Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping, there are signs that the United States will not be able to assume its global dominance in the next few years.
US-Russia-China
The political situation has become tense since Putin ordered the arrest of three Ukrainian ships and their naval personnel in the Kerch Bay near Russian-occupied Crimea. This tension was reflected in the G20 summit. Trump has also taken steps to cancel a meeting between Trump and Putin, expressing displeasure at Russia's actions. Europe is currently facing economic, social, and political turmoil. At the same time, the United States and Russia are trying to influence Europe. The tide of developments in the Gulf of Kerch goes beyond the local level, and so we have to look at these events in the light of the geopolitical and economic tug-of-war between Russia and the United States to strengthen its position in Europe.
On the occasion of the summit, Trump met with Jinping to discuss the trade deficit. From January 1, the Trump administration postponed the idea of imposing a 25% tariff on वस्तू 200 billion worth of Chinese goods for 90 days. In return, China agreed to import large quantities of agricultural, energy, and industrial goods from the United States, according to a statement by the United States.
But within a week of the visit, Meng Wangzhao, the chief financial officer of Huawei, China's second-largest telecom company, was arrested in Canada on charges of violating US sanctions on Iran and is expected to be extradited to the United States. The arrest has sparked a wave of outrage in China and its repercussions were reflected in the global market crash. In the wake of this incident, Russia also strongly condemned the US global monopoly.
Tensions between the two leading economies, China and the United States, are weighing on the global economy as a whole. It is feared that the global economy, which has been recovering from the 2008 financial crisis, will have to face another crisis. Moreover, its political repercussions may not be very pleasant for world politics. Therefore, the question is whether the two countries have taken a break from the sanctity of trade war and sheathed their respective sciences. Moreover, this trade war is also a technology war, because artificial intelligence, the Internet of Things, is about to usher in a fourth industrial revolution, and the controversy over who dominates the world through it is evident in the dispute between China and the United States.
The G20 meeting after Khashoggi's assassination was a great opportunity for Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to improve his image. His handshake with Putin resounded well. But other leaders have not let him down, especially since French President Emmanuel Macron said, "I'm worried about Khashoggi." The Prime Minister of the United Kingdom Theresa May has also expressed her concern to Salman. The meeting with Trump was a relief for Salman.
From the perspective of India
From India's point of view, Prime Minister Modi attended 25 meetings during his two-day visit. Modi's first meeting in Argentina was with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who was on the defensive after Khashoggi's assassination. Given the place of moral values in Indian foreign policy, the above meeting is a progressive change. India needs huge investments and keeping oil prices stable is essential for the country's economy. Just two days ago, the Saudi oil minister had told the media that Modi had conveyed his views to the Saudi delegation on keeping oil prices stable.
Another important aspect of Modi's tour is to strike a balance with the important countries of the world. The United States and Japan, on the one hand, and Russia and China, on the other, introduced their strategic autonomy through tripartite talks. Also, as India is the same link in both the meetings, New Delhi became aware of its growing global importance. India is important as the fastest growing economy in the world, but apart from that, New Delhi is unique for the stability of the Indo-Pacific region. During the meeting, Modi raised issues of sustainable development, maritime security, connectivity, disaster relief, and freedom of communication at sea. The point of this tripartite discussion was to jointly mark their influence without naming China.
On the other hand, after the above tripartite meeting, India participated in the summit meeting with Russia and China for the first time in 12 years. At the same time, India is trying to strike a balance between the US, China, and Russia. China is geographically India's neighbor and therefore India cannot make the mistake of blindly dragging the US. Over the past year, relations between India and China have stabilized since the Wuhan Conference; After the Sochi Conference between Modi and Putin and Putin's visit to India, misunderstandings in bilateral relations have begun to clear up.
The meeting discussed the situation in Afghanistan and West Asia and the progress of the BRICS. India still has a long way to go in terms of technology, so India will have to keep a close eye on trade disputes between the US and China and Russia's aggressive military role. India needs everyone's help for technological advancement. India will have to be prepared for the difficult future of choosing a party between the two sides.
The issue of black money and debt-ridden people fleeing the country is also a hot topic in domestic politics. India has consistently raised the issues of black money, harmonizing the tax system in various countries, and economic criminals on the G-20 platform. This time too, India has proposed 9 points. India proposes that the G-20 members jointly develop a mechanism so that debtors / financial fugitives do not easily find refuge in any country. For this, India is trying to get the Financial Action Task Force to take the initiative and define 'financial absconding'. In addition, India's demand for joint efforts to break the shackles of economic terrorism and the implementation of the Hamburg Declaration, which was ratified last year, has been approved this year.
The media was not expecting much from the G-20 meeting this time. Also, the joint statement could not be released at the G-7 meeting in June as well as at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation meeting in mid-November. However, in the wake of the current geopolitical turmoil, various leaders around the world have been able to discuss with each other on a formal or informal level. The conclusion of the conference is, in a way, a success for Argentina, which is struggling financially. Moreover, the joint statement issued at the end of the meeting was welcomed by all. The unanimous release of the statement means that the global discussion process has not stalled and the optimism that volatile global politics and economics can be turned around in the near future remains important.
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