The politics of JAI Japan-US-India, which is taking shape in the geopolitical area of Indo-Pacific, is important. But ignoring China will not succeed.
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A meeting of the G20 countries was recently held in Buenos Aires, the capital of Argentina. A separate meeting was also held between US President Donald Trump, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. This was the first meeting of the Japan-US-India group. In Abe's own words, the commonalities and strategic goals of the three countries bring them together.
According to sources, Modi said the group could work on five issues: communications, sustainable development, maritime security, disaster relief and freedom of navigation.
Tripartite group: The system that is currently visible everywhere
At present, tripartite groups are being formed everywhere. In addition to the JAI group meeting mentioned above, Modi also had a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Such a meeting has taken place almost a decade later. They discussed ways to improve and strengthen the work of all parties, such as the United Nations and the World Trade Organization. The meeting also discussed ways to make the Russia-India-China tripartite group more efficient. Modi also had a separate discussion with Xi Jinping. This is the fourth Jinping-Modi visit this year.
Asia-Pacific (now called Indo-Pacific) is a vast expanse. Throughout the region, various groups are emerging with the aim of safeguarding interests based on political and security issues. And right now, it seems, only tripartite groups are taking shape. The Japan-US-India (JAI) is another group that connects the United States with its friends and colleagues in the region.
The eighth round of the Track 1.5 Security Dialogue between Japan-US-Taiwan is currently underway. Although the US-Japan-South Korea group has not yet become very active, the US-Australia-Japan group has been active since 2006.
All the agreements that the United States has made in this area, keeping in mind the security needs, are all bilateral. These include South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Philippines, etc. The US uses the hub-and-spoke model for this. (I mean, all these relationships have been kept separate from each other.) But now America wants to bring it all together. However, for that, without implementing a system like NATO, in the words of a former US Secretary of Defense, a system of "security systems based on certain principles" is to be set up.
New Delhi's cautious saint
'Malabar war games' have started between Japan, US and India. (And Australia has been trying to get it involved, but to no avail.) This is a good example of how tripartite groups are taking shape. The ongoing security dialogue between the US, Australia, Japan and India is another aspect of this process.
All these nations are in full support constantly enabled the Indo-Pacific (Free and Open Indo-Pacific - FOIP) area open, but some countries like India are not ready to accept that FOIP is a strategic concept. However, during the recent Shangri-La Dialogue, Modi insisted that "everyone should have freedom in international navigation and any differences should be resolved in accordance with international law". "The international system must be based on democratic values and rules," he said.
Right now India is just talking. The actual action of the pious is less than that. But the United States and Japan are beginning to give a definite shape to the "Indo-Pacific" goals. (The two also have a separate security agreement). The United States has stepped up its naval operations (called Freedon of Navigation Operations - FONOPS) and air force aircraft in the South China Sea. The Japanese navy sent its submarines to the area in September and paid a courtesy call on Vietnam. Around the same time, the Japanese navy's largest and most helicopter-carrying ship, the Kaga, conducted naval exercises in the area along with a British navy ship. The British ship was bound for the South China Sea.
India's Needs: Infrastructure Investment - As Much As It Can Get
Japan is known as a major investor in the infrastructure sector in the region. The investment was made through two institutions, the Asian Development Bank and Official Development Assistance. The United States also passed a law called BUILD in October 2018, providing तब्बल 6 billion for development work, signalling that we are taking it seriously.
Another tripartite group took shape in July. The group was formed by the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT), the Overseas Private Investment Corporation of the United States (OPIC) and the Japanese Bank of International Cooperation (JICA) of Japan to promote investment in the Indo-Pacific region.
However, India itself needs to invest heavily in infrastructure. So, it is obvious that he cannot sit in the row of the above three. But there is also a memorandum of understanding between India and Japan called 'Asian African Growth Corridor' (AAGC) to enhance connectivity between Southeast Asia (which is Japan's largest investor in the region), India and Africa.
The Japan-US-India trio also has differences of opinion regarding China
Japan and India have taken their relationship a long way. Although the AAGC program is yet to be fully launched, Japan is leading the way in meeting India's investment needs in the infrastructure sector. And now the two countries are planning to jointly invest in other countries like Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Myanmar.
We have to face the fact that the positions of Japan, the US and India themselves on China are not compatible with each other. And China is one of the heaviest countries in the region. Both India and the United States are adamant that "FOIP is an open system for all - anyone who agrees to the sovereignty of each country, freedom of navigation, compliance with international law, etc. can join.
Modi and Jinping held a meeting some time ago in which a new beginning was made in the relations between the two countries. Earlier, an informal meeting was held in Wuhan, China. And now Abe has done just that. India has assisted China in launching a project in a third place like Afghanistan, and Japan has joined China in 50 infrastructure development projects in the Indo-Pacific region.
All three have different national perspectives. It is affected by geographical location. The US is a long way from China. So, if China becomes aggressive tomorrow, it will not make much difference to the US. However, the story of Japan and India is different. They could be directly affected by China's aggression. Therefore, they have to be careful.
India's shaky role
In any case, India is seen as a 'Swing State'. India's geographical location is very important. What role India plays has a huge impact on the regional balance of power. In the well-established superpowers of China, Russia, and the United States, both competition and conflict are ongoing. India may have some differences with all of them, but it also cooperates with all of them on many issues. But India's role in trade, nuclear proliferation, human rights, economics, maritime security has a huge impact on world politics.
India's current interest is to push forward strengthening its global identity as a 'Swing State'. In the past, it was called non-alignment. But now new words like 'multi-alignment' or strategic autonomy have come into vogue.
All three, Japan, the United States and India, are fully aware that we cannot stop China's progress towards becoming a world superpower by any means other than open conflict. And given the way the economies of Japan and the United States are so closely tied to the Chinese economy, conflict / war is not going to be a pleasant thing. Instead, the only way forward is for the trio to convince Beijing that their grievances will be resolved and that it is in Beijing's interest to do so. And, these three countries must be trying to achieve most of that.
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