An article discussing the latest US troop withdrawal from Afghanistan and related politics in the context of India's security policies.
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A day after US President Donald Trump's decision to withdraw troops from Syria, and Defense Secretary James Mattis announced his resignation, and just hours later, Washington announced a surprise plan to withdraw 7,000 troops from Afghanistan. The decision would lead to the withdrawal of nearly half of all US troops in Afghanistan, marking the lowest level of US military presence in Afghanistan since 2002. The announcement was not surprising given Trump's election campaign and his political ideology, but the time it took to make the announcement shocked many inside and outside the United States.
South Carolina Senator Lindsay Graham, who has previously backed Trump, has warned that "given the current situation in Afghanistan, there is a risk that US troops will withdraw from Afghanistan." If we continue on this path, then we are rapidly eroding our success to date and moving towards another 9/11.
Only when Zalmai Khalilzad was appointed as the US envoy for a reconciliation deal in Afghanistan in September did it become clear that Trump was on the verge of withdrawing from Afghanistan. Khalilzad was trying to get the broken peace talks back on track. The US envoy also began three days of talks with the Taliban in Abu Dhabi last week.
But Trump's announcement will cut the debate in half, as Washington made the announcement at a time when a resolution was needed from Washington to resolve the issue. The Taliban has always called for the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan, and the United States appears to be falling victim to that demand. This will give the Taliban and their supporters more courage and reduce the reluctance of American mediators. The Taliban are not keen to agree to any deal immediately. The Taliban will continue to monitor the situation quietly as Trump expresses his desire to withdraw from Afghanistan without considering the consequences.
Despite planned US airstrikes against the Taliban, the Afghan government appears to have lost 56 percent of its control of the country's districts. And the Afghan National Security Forces had to deal with a high-level leak. The US military's support for the Afghan security forces has been crucial in fighting the Taliban. A political resurgence in Afghanistan is possible with Afghan President Ashraf Ghani, who has decided to run for president in April 2019. He has recently replaced the country's top security chief with anti-Taliban and anti-Pakistan officials.
The Afghan government is also surprised by the US announcement. Ghani had announced his five-year peace proposal in November, which could be won in April 2019 if the peace council were linked to his next term. The Taliban has refused to negotiate directly with the Afghan government in Kabul, which is considered a government imposed on them by outside countries.
Pakistan has benefited greatly from US mediation in Afghanistan policy and has received billions of dollars in US civilian and military aid. The US has to rely on Pakistan as its supply chain faces geographical difficulties. Trump had also indicated Pakistan sitting in the queue of Iran and North Korea, and Pakistan was included in the list of countries that are being watched by the US administration. And this year, the Trump administration withheld 800 million in aid to Pakistan. In outlining his South Asia policy, Trump explicitly accused Islamabad of spreading chaos, violence and terrorism.
With the US announcing its withdrawal from Afghanistan, Pakistan is ready to play a mediating role again and has expressed a desire for a Taliban presence for negotiations. Other regional countries, such as Russia and Iran, will join the talks and show support for Pakistan.
While waiting for the US military to withdraw, various regional elements try to change the nature of the battlefield according to their own strategic priorities, which could result in a transformation into a civil war. India is now re-examining its Afghanistan strategy while waiting for details on the structure and duration of the remaining US troops in Afghanistan.
New Delhi welcomed Trump's South Asia policy, which gave India an important role to play, making it clear that it could not rely on Trump. "We appreciate India's significant and enormous efforts to subsidise the chaos and stabilise the the situation in Afghanistan, However India trades billions of dollars with the United States, and thus we want India contribute more to assist the United States, especially in the areas of financial assistance and other areas of development in Afghanistan." Trump made such suggestions, underlining India's role in Afghanistan, and suggested that India needed more help. New Delhi's role in Afghanistan has expanded, and the US Department of Defense has proven in a recent report that India is Afghanistan's most trusted regional ally and also the largest partner in development assistance in the region.
India's investment in Afghanistan with Russia and China has gained momentum in recent months. As part of the "India China Plus" campaign, New Delhi and Beijing have identified Afghanistan as one country and where the two countries will partner. Joint training of Afghan diplomats has begun and joint infrastructure projects in Afghanistan are being discussed. Although India's policy towards Russia is cautious, India is committed to the peace process with Russia.
India's presence in Afghanistan has been made possible by the US military presence. But New Delhi today is considered the most credible factor in the political world of Afghanistan. So now that the US is re-examining its policy options, India must be ready to fight its own battles.
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