Against the backdrop of the Afghanistan issue, Indo-US trade and the Trump administration's domestic stalemate, the US response to Pulwama seems overwhelming.
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A recent terrorist attack in Pulwama by Jaish-e-Mohammed, a Pakistan-based group, killed 40 soldiers and wounded 35 others . As a result, the issue of Pakistan's sanctuary on its soil has once again come to the fore. This is the largest attack in Kashmir so far. As a result, India's support for the war on terror has increased.
It is learned that US National Security Adviser John Bolton had two rounds of talks with his Indian counterpart after the Pulwama attack. He paid tribute to those killed in the attack and acknowledged India's " right to self-defense against terrorism ." It also offered to help Jaish-e-Mohammed's Masood Azhar overcome obstacles to being declared an "international terrorist under UN Resolution 1267" at the UN General Assembly .
The US response was definitely harsh, as they reacted by mentioning Pakistan. But before that, the US administration sent its officials to Pakistan to put pressure on them to exercise restraint and reduce tensions. That did not happen this time.
For instance, after the attack on the Indian Parliament, US Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitaj tried to defuse tensions by talking to Delhi and Islamabad. Bolton's response, on the other hand, was that "India did not have to wait for international signals to respond to Pakistan." Looking at the work of the US National Security Council, led by Bolton, the response from the US seems to be just a matter of duty.
Whenever tensions arose between India and Pakistan, the US sought dialogue between the two countries to avoid war. This practice, which dates back to the Clinton era, continued after him. For example, the 2008 Mumbai attacks took place during Thanksgiving Week in the United States. Yet Bush's National Security Council began negotiations and eventually called a meeting in Washington, reducing the vacation. Under Bush, the National Security Council has been working to ensure that misinformation does not spread to all participants .
As national security adviser, Bolton has the authority to convene a meeting of the heads of the U.S. Cabinet Committee. During such a meeting, which takes place in the aftermath of an important event, a draft of what to say to the US President regarding analysis, reaction and policy is decided. So it was thought that Bolton would react by discussing with all of them after the Pulwama incident. But that did not happen. It is learned that he modified the written response sent by the External Affairs Ministry, which did not mention Pakistan. Bolton is currently gradually reducing the number of such meetings. This is so low that cabinet heads feel that they are not being involved in policy-making . It is learned that no such meeting was held after the Pulwama attack.
Bolton's assertion that the United States will help India at the UN Security Council to take action against Jaish-e-Mohammed leader Masur Azhar does not seem credible. Because they are constantly raising questions about the UN Security Council. Bolton has already said that the 38-story United Nations Directorate building in New York will not make much difference, even if it is not 10 storeys high. Most importantly, the United States has not been represented at the United Nations since the resignation of Ambassador Nicki Haley last year. Last week, Donald Trump, the US ambassador to the United Nations, favored Heather Norrett as Haley's successor, but Norrett refused to go.
Apart from this, there are three other things that the US does not think can do much for India.
The issue of Afghanistan
With Pakistan at the center of the current peace process in Afghanistan, many say it is a challenge for the US to help India with the Pulwama incident. Islamabad's host role in the recent talks between the Taliban and US officials is another issue. However, according to a recent report, the talks in Islamabad have been canceled. The reason behind this is that the majority of the members of the Taliban discussion group will not be able to attend the meeting due to 'US-UN' relations. The meeting will now take place on February 25 in Doh.
Earlier this month, US envoy Zalmay Khalid, the head of the US negotiating team, credited Pakistan with "preparing the Taliban for negotiations." He also expressed hope that US-Pakistan relations would be "smooth".
Pakistan will have serious objections to the withdrawal of 14,000 US troops from Afghanistan in the near future once the US-Afghanistan agreement is resolved.
More importantly, security and intelligence cooperation between the US and Pakistan would be immediately strained if the US and Afghanistan agreed to maintain US air bases at Bargam and Sharabak on Pakistan's western border.
Trade negotiations
The trade imbalance between the US and India is only ३० 30 billion. India ranks tenth in the list of countries with which trade has declined. However, Trump's displeasure with India over the issue of "fair" trade relations has not abated. Last year, India was hit by the US steel and aluminum import tax. India, on the other hand, declared an import duty on goods worth २४ 240 million. Talks are underway between India and the United States on this issue.
According to available information, the last two years have seen a stalemate in trade negotiations as the US is considering taking the next step. The Trump administration is trying to "create a situation of pressure" by trying to get India out of the Generalized System of Preferences program. Under the Generalized System of Preferences, India can "export डॉलर 5.6 billion worth of goods, such as jewelry, auto parts and electrical appliances, without the hindrance of US import taxes."
Trump has a tendency to link the US military commitment and the military dependence of allied countries to trade imbalances and migration issues. So the current Indo-US trade negotiations are definitely more important than Pulwama.
The Trump administration in internal conflict
The Trump administration is currently stuck on the domestic front rather than the international front. Although the administration recently avoided a shutdown, the Trump administration faced a constitutional dilemma. President Trump recently declared a national emergency to set aside funds to build a wall on the Mexican border. This will cause them to fight with the US Parliament and the judiciary. It is natural for the emergency to be challenged at all levels.
Republicans are under pressure to back the Democrats in the House of Representatives to postpone Trump's national emergency resolution. Some also question whether changes can be made to existing laws that declare a state of emergency without the consent of Congress.
Under US foreign and security policy, Iran and North Korea are seen as more 'troublesome' than India. More importantly, the Trump administration would have relatively little capital if the Senate hit Trump on the emergency issue. This will affect India-US relations. Because, officials for South and Central Asia don’t think they can do anything without formal permission.
After all, the US response to the Pulwama terrorist attack will be crucial in terms of boycotting Pakistan and supporting Indian efforts to get Masood Azhar to act at the UN level. However, Bolton's focused approach to the National Security Committee and his continued representation of the United States at the United Nations raised questions about the United States' sincere cooperation.
Pakistan's role in the post-US troop withdrawal from Afghanistan is unlikely to intensify the US response in the near future. Trade negotiations with India are at a critical juncture and there are tensions between the Trump administration and the US legislature and judiciary over the issue of emergency. In view of all this, the reaction of the United States to Pulwama is obvious.
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