Those who speak the language of blocking the flow of water to Pakistan do not understand this, otherwise the Kashmir Valley will become waterlogged.
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The Indus Water Treaty (IWT) is an agreement between India and Pakistan on the sharing of water from three eastbound rivers and three westbound rivers. The agreement was signed by the two countries 60 years ago. The agreement has survived the strained relations between India and Pakistan even though after three wars. Therefore, there is no doubt that this Indus Water Treaty is the most successful water sharing agreement in the world.
But in recent times, both countries, mainly India, have expressed their dissatisfaction with the agreement. Experts from both countries have argued that the agreement is unfair to their country. Going beyond the demand that the agreement should be reviewed, some experts have even demanded the cancellation of the agreement. Some are also urging Pakistan to block the flow of water approved by the agreement.
Although the state of Jammu and Kashmir is not a signatory to the agreement, it is a key stakeholder. That state is also unhappy and blames the deal on its financial situation. In 2002, a resolution was passed in the Jammu and Kashmir Legislative Assembly to review the agreement. According to Jammu and Kashmir, the agreement limits the storage of water in the Western Ghats. This included obstacles in the development of hydropower projects in the state.
Let us treat all these objections in various perspectives.
Water storage
Looking at the terrain and topography of the western tributaries, it is clear that these rivers do not have the capacity to build reservoirs or dams to store large amounts of water. The Chenab and Indus rivers flow in high slopes and flow through narrow ghats, limiting water storage. On the other hand, in stark contrast to the Chenab and the Indus, the flow of the Jhelum River is very slow and it flows through a wide area of the valley. So the topography of this river is very suitable for building a dam, but doing so can damage the valley. Large water storage can cause flooding in the valley.
However, the tributaries of the Jhelum River have a good potential to store small amounts of water and it is also permitted under the agreement. But the volume of this reservoir will be small. To date, India has not built any such reservoir on these rivers, it is important to mention here. If the reservoir was available in the Jhelum river basin as per the agreement, the floods in Kashmir experienced in 2014 could have been reduced.
Capacity of hydropower projects
The total hydropower capacity of the three rivers in Kashmir is 16,000 MW. The Chenab river basin accounts for two-thirds of the total capacity. A series of hydropower projects are being set up in the Chenab river basin and when these projects are completed, the hydropower potential of the valley will be fully utilized. With the exception of one project (Barsar Hydropower Project), no other project has the capacity to store large amounts of water. With or without the Indus Water Treaty, these projects could not have built a larger reservoir like the Tehri Hydroelectric Project or the Bhakra Nangal Dam. Even in the case of existing projects, we use less than half of the total available stored water reserves approved in the contract for this basin.
In the case of the Jhelum River, projects with a capacity of half of the total hydropower capacity have already been developed. However, as mentioned earlier, any large reservoir can result in flooding of the entire basin. Perhaps because of this, the agreement mentions this fact and does not approve the construction of a reservoir on the main Jhelum river. The tributaries of the Jhelum have the capacity to store a limited amount of water.
The hydropower potential of the Indus River is still unclear. The reasons behind this are the location of reservoirs in remote areas, rising cost of construction, problems in energy migration and operation and maintenance of the project.
If the topography of the three river basins is such that no large reservoir can be created there, then it is wrong to argue that the Indus Water Treaty has adversely affected the hydropower potential of the state.
Stop the flow of water?
Let us now look at the demand to stop the flow of water to Pakistan. Is it practical and achievable? Since India consumes almost all the water of the eastern tributaries, obstructing the flow of water to Pakistan means blocking the flow of three western tributaries, of which more than 80% (117 billion cubic meters - BCM) belongs to the Indus. To block the flow of water to Pakistan is to store the water of those rivers or to change the flow of the rivers. For example, every year, 117 billion cubic meters (BCM) of water is added to 120,000 square kilometers. Enough to fill the land up to 1 meter height. Simply put, this amount of water will flood the Kashmir Valley up to 7 meters in a year. Depending on the size of the reservoir, it will take 30 dams the size of Tehri Dam to store the water mentioned above.
It takes 10 years to build a Tehri shaped dam. Therefore, even if we start building 30 dams tomorrow, the process of actually blocking water will take place in 2030. Until then, Pakistan will not have to bear the brunt of this action. And then every year we will need 30 such dams to stop the flow of western rivers towards Pakistan. We can see that this is not possible in practice.
The option to change the flow of rivers is equally ridiculous. Leaving aside the idea of three rivers, to change the course of any one river, a man-made river of at least 100 km would have to be dug and great challenges would have to be faced in its design, construction and maintenance. Millions of crores of rupees will have to be invested to complete this project, thousands of hectares of land will have to be acquired and this project will take decades to complete.
Whichever of the two options is chosen, it will have no effect on Pakistan for the next 30 to 50 years. Also, there is no need to talk about the catastrophic impact on the environment when implementing any of these projects.
Cancel the contract
The implication is that if India decides to cancel the agreement now, the situation will not change. In terms of water availability for Pakistan, water will continue to flow to Pakistan unless India plans to build a dam or change the course of the river.
Even if the agreement is canceled, the flow of water to Pakistan will continue, but the cancellation of the agreement will lead to other problems. Since 90% of Pakistan's agriculture depends on the Indus River and employs more than 40% of its population, the cancellation of this agreement would make the common people of Pakistan feel that India is trying to starve them and their country to death. This will create fear and uncertainty in their minds.
The cancellation of the agreement will not make any difference to Pakistan, but such an action would benefit groups keen to divide Pakistan and worsen relations between the two countries. They will try to achieve their goal by using the reason for the cancellation of the agreement and for them it will be an opportunity sent by God to increase the tension between the two countries.
Therefore, India should not even consider canceling the agreement - as it will have no effect on Pakistan in the short and medium term. Such an act would cause revolt in both the countries as it is morally, legally or diplomatically unjust and against the accepted international norms. This time the animosity will be not only in the countries but also in the masses. India will not be able to do anything by canceling the agreement but India will be held responsible for creating more bitterness in the relations between the two countries.
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