The increased intervention of the Gulf countries in the African continent has to be viewed from both a curse and a blessing.
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The region northeast of the African continent is known as the 'Horne of Africa'. It stretches as far as the Arabian Sea and is south of the Gulf of Aden. Over the past several decades, armed conflict in the region, large-scale migration, and severe food shortages have been the talk of the town. The region was also destabilized by the massive migration from across the border and the ensuing escalating violence. But now the situation is beginning to change.
Learning a lesson from the past, this horned African nation is now moving forward with the times. Ethiopia is undergoing a political transition and the country's economy is improving rapidly, so much so that the rate of economic growth has reached double digits. Eritrea, which has become notorious around the world for its unsettling incidents of human rights abuses, has raised its level of appreciation by learning from UN sanctions. The country is now free from sanctions.
The open borders between Ethiopia and Eritrea, which were formerly intertwined with each other, have become a symbol of positive development. Eritrea took another step towards positivity by signing peace and cooperation agreements with Dijboti and Somalia. Meanwhile, Sudan, inspired by Eritrea, began efforts to improve bilateral relations by curbing its conflict with Egypt, prompting the US to lift sanctions on Sudan.
While such positive developments were taking place in the territory of the African horn, the countries of the Middle East began to make vigorous efforts to establish their foothold in the region. Due to the geo-strategic importance of the Red Sea and the interest of international powers in it, such development and competition is gaining momentum in the lands adjoining the Red Sea. Countries that have so far pursued peaceful bilateral relations are now competing with each other for development.
Looking at the recent hype about economic and military investment in various countries in the region, Prakash realizes that the geopolitical picture on both sides of the Red Sea is changing rapidly. Between the ports and military bases along the Red Sea coast, the rich Gulf nations appear to be investing heavily. The main objective behind these major investments of the Gulf nations is to change the geopolitical situation around the Red Sea and make its mark here and underline its importance globally.
Three important groups from the Gulf countries are working to enrich the region on the African horn. The first is the Arab group (led by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates but also includes Egypt and Bahrain), the Iran group and the Qatar-Turkey group.
Arab group
The group of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia is very influential in this region on the African horn. The two countries acted as mediators for a peace agreement between Ethiopia and Eritrea, underlining their importance. The peace deal was celebrated in a grand manner in Jeddah, on the coast of Saudi Arabia. In particular, the agreement was reached in the absence of the United States and the African Union, the traditional mediators in the region. The agreement had two levels, economic and strategic. The UAE, in search of a new ally in the region on the African horn, found him in April 2018 as the influential leader and Prime Minister of Ethiopia, Abi Ahmed.
Abiya Ahmed has repeatedly emphasized the importance of privatization and port development for Ethiopia's overall development. However, the lack of beaches and the dependence on Djibouti were two major concerns in Ethiopia's development path. Abu Dhabi's policy was to lend heavily to Ethiopia, to invest there, and to help the country build infrastructure. It also pledged मदत 3 billion in aid to Ethiopia. Of that, 1 billion was deposited in the National Bank of Ethiopia. Ethiopia's blocked foreign waters were the reason behind it.
The UAE and Saudi Arabia had promised to form a pressure group to lift international sanctions on Eritrea. The peace agreement between the Eritrean capital, Asmara, and the Ethiopian capital, Addis Ababa, also prioritized the rehabilitation of the two Eritrean ports of Assab and Massawa. The UAE still uses the port of Assab to bomb the Yemeni port of Hodeidah. If international sanctions on Eritrea are lifted, the port of Assab, which has been modernized for purely military use, could be transformed and used for future commercial development.
On the other hand, China's growing interference in Djibouti has attracted the UAE's long-standing investment in the region. China is building a multi-purpose port (MPP) at the Doraleh port in Dijboti with an investment of तब्बल 590 million, which will also include container and cargo facilities. The project is being managed by China Merchants Group (CMG). However, the management and partial ownership of the Doraleh Container Terminal since 2008 was expected to remain with DP World (a world-renowned logistics company) in Dubai until the AMP in Dijboti was inaugurated. But in February last year, Dijboti unilaterally rescinded the deal and nationalized 33 per cent of its shares, sparking a protracted court battle between Dijboti and the UAE.
Meanwhile, through DP World, the UAE continued to invest in neighboring ports. DP World won multi-million dollar contracts for the development of ports in the semi-autonomous regions of Somali and Puntland, Barbara and Bosasso, respectively. Ethiopia will have a 19 per cent stake in the Barbera port project, DP World 51 per cent and the Somali government 30 per cent. The UAE's armed forces are stationed in Barbara, and despite opposition from the Somali central government, it is rumored to be discussing the development of the Lubballand central state of Kisamayo.
At present, the Arab group is struggling to maintain its influence in the Horn of Africa with an urgent approach to land security. The Arab axis is trying to maintain its sphere of influence, assuming that there could be a conflict with Iran in the future.
Iranian influence on the horns of Africa
Iran's relations with African countries are strategically important on issues such as the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. This would allow Iran to gain control of the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, as well as to deal effectively with pirates, and to maintain pressure on the Arab axis, especially Saudi Arabia. Sudan is Iran's most important partner in the region, as it has signed a military cooperation agreement. However, Saudi Arabia froze banking cooperation with Sudan in 2014, forcing Sudan to close Iranian cultural centers in the country. Then in 2015, Sudan joined the Saudi-led coalition to join hands with the Houthis in Yemen.
The Houthis had the support of Iran. Iran's influence in Eritrea began to wane in 2015 as the UAE and Saudi Arabia began cooperating with the country in lifting international sanctions and investing in Eritrea for military assistance and infrastructure. Eritrea now also has a UAE military base. Given its proximity to Yemen, Iran has requested that Somalia and Dijboti be allowed to use its territory. However, the development funding provided by Iran to these countries was staggering. As a result, Dijboti, Sudan and Somalia severed diplomatic ties with Iran in 2016.
Still, Iran is trying to regain its dominance in the Horn of Africa, and its prospects are slim. The sanctions imposed by the US have had a devastating effect on Iran's economic interests in Africa. In addition, Riyadh and Abu Dhabi do not want Iran to re-enter the African Horn of Africa.
Qatar-Turkey group
The crisis in the Gulf has encouraged the strengthening of relations between Qatar and Turkey. Turkey is known as Somalia's leading economic partner, managing not only the capital's ports and airports, but also its military bases in Somalia. Turkey has recently signed an agreement with Sudan for the reconstruction of Suakin Island (formerly part of the Ottoman Sea). Another benefit would be that it would help Turkey build a military base in the Red Sea compound to fight terrorism.
Qatar, on the other hand, is said to have provided a large amount of financial support to President Mohammed Pharmaju during his election campaign. As the UAE withdrew from Somalia, Qatar stepped up its efforts to fill the void it had created and increased its investment in Mogadishu, as well as its support for the Somali military. In early 2019, Qatar provided 68 armed vehicles to bolster the Somali army's fight against Islamic forces.
Conflicts between the UAE and the Saudi-sponsored Arab axis and the Iranian-backed Qatari-Turkish axis have spread throughout the Horn of Africa. The widening gap between Qatar and the Gulf has had a negative effect on countries such as Somalia and Sudan, forcing them to adjust to the escalating tensions as hostilities escalate. The old organization, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), would have had a long-term effect on political stability and would have affected the peaceful trade by sea. Assuming the benefits of short-term gains for external powers, the instability in the African horn could have been a threat to world peace.
Lessons for African countries
The Gulf's intervention in the African horn can be seen in terms of both blessings and curses. The perpetuation of the Yemen war and the internationalization of the Gulf crisis have provided the region with a huge source of cash and political support for the region's governments, while at the same time posing a major risk to fragile peace arrangements and investment projects in the Horn of Africa region.
While many African governments have taken advantage of the situation to scrap large investment deals, their relatively fragile position has forced them to choose their tents according to the circumstances. Therefore, African countries should strongly oppose any attempt to interfere in their domestic policy decisions and pay close attention to how to protect their sovereignty. African countries need to recognize their geopolitical features, focus on how to strengthen them, and balance their relations with the various powers in the region. Use your energy to attract more investment and create the best opportunity for your country.
While Gulf investment will benefit African countries in the short to long term, any long-term changes in the Horn of Africa will ultimately depend on how African countries maintain their ties with the Gulf countries.
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