India's handling of sanctions and subsequent concessions on oil purchases in Iran has been a new headache for India.
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The current picture is that the Trump administration may have decided not to extend the sanctions imposed on countries that continue to buy oil from Iran. As an exception, the decision not to re-implement the Significant Reduction Exceptions (SREs) policy could have a major impact on many oil-importing countries in Asia. Importantly, it also includes India, China, Japan and South Korea, and last year the US lifted sanctions on these countries for 180 days.
Out of all these countries, the biggest impact of the US decision is likely to be on India. India stands at second place after China as second largest Crude oil buyer from Iran. Apart from that, India also imports a large amount of oil from Tehran out of its total oil imports. According to him, Iran is the third largest oil supplier to India after Iraq and Saudi Arabia. This means that from India's point of view, the possibility of the US decision being accepted seems difficult.
In fact, this contentious situation has raised many questions about India-US relations. One of the important questions is whether we can turn the US on our side or whether India's calculations are wrong. On the other hand, India has an important place in the US liberal policy towards the Indo-Pacific region. But it seems that India should be of the opinion that this will once again be an exception to the restrictions that have been in place since May 1, and that concessions will be granted.
We should also take note of the recent statement made by India's Petroleum Minister Dharmendra Pradhan on Twitter. In the tweet, Pradhan had said that India has a concrete plan to supply adequate crude oil to the country's oil refineries. According to him, India will get surplus oil from some of the major oil suppliers, which will enable the country's oil refineries to meet the country's demand for petrol, diesel and other petroleum products. Of course, even if India is prepared to reduce its oil imports from Iran, it is unlikely that India will completely stop importing oil from Iran.
There will definitely be some negative reactions to the US decision in India. What is important is how the US is India's untrustworthy ally, and how the US is undermining India's interests and sovereignty. In fact, tensions between India and the United States had already erupted.
This is the real situation. India has no other option. If India wants to find an alternative to an oil supplier like Iran, it has no concrete option other than Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and the United States. Importantly, this is what the United States has underlined in its statement. The United States, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, the world's three largest energy producers, and their allies are committed to ensuring adequate oil supplies to the global oil market. "Iran now has no place in the world oil market, so we agree that appropriate steps should be taken at that time to ensure that oil is supplied accordance with global demand," the US mentioned in a statement.
Iran, which is influenced by Shia Muslims, is seen by India as a major ally against Pakistan, which is influenced by Sunni Muslims. Apart from that, Pakistan has always maintained close ties with Saudi Arabia. Against this backdrop, India still considers Iran a co-operative country. Apart from that, reducing Pakistan's influence in Afghanistan is a common goal of both India and Iran. And that is why Iran's role against Pakistan's policies seems to be naturally aligned with India's.
At the level of political policy, the Central Asian region is an important region for India. That is why India is looking at these developments from a broader perspective that can help Iran build its position in the region. India has invested heavily in the construction of the Chabahar port in Iran. The port provides an alternative route to Afghanistan and Central Asia without using the Pakistani route. Importantly, despite India's growing proximity to the United States, many countries, including Iran, which oppose the United States, have a special interest in India. Adapting to real regimes of different tendencies has been a historical feature of India. Of course, it is also important to look at when all of this is happening.
At the same time, it is important to note that the US decision could lead to a situation where India's current course could be a challenge to India-Iran relations. India, for example, has invested heavily in enhancing ties with Saudi Arabia and several Gulf regimes that oppose Iran. As these ties deepen, so will the pressure on India to change its policy of cooperating with Iran.
On the other hand, India's relations with Israel are getting stronger. Israel is an important country as it supplies important military supplies to us. However, it should be noted that Israel is Iran's rival in many areas. At least so far, India has handled relations with such conflicting countries well. However, it also means that India is unlikely to go out of its way to support Tehran.
Importantly, the stance taken by Iran on a number of issues in recent times has, in fact, only increased India's unrest. For example, on the issue of Afghanistan, Iran seems to be on Pakistan's side. The recent visit of Pakistan's Prime Minister Imran Khan to Iran made this clear.
Last but not least, the US is, in fact, India's most important ally. And the ties between these countries are getting stronger day by day. Considering the mutual interest of India and the US, it would not be in India's interest to go hand in hand with China against the US wishes on the issue of Iran. Given all this, it is safe to say that the next few weeks at the strategic level will not be easy for India.
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