Libya's political turmoil is growing because of internal militancy, foreign intervention and radical groups.
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The chaos that has plagued Libya for more than seven years after the 2011 civil unrest continues today. Many hoped that Libya would become an independent and inclusive country after the end of Gaddafi's dictatorship. But the National Unity Government (NUG) in Tripoli, led by Fayaz al-Sarraj, is unable to keep Libya united. Many serious challenges have hampered the establishment of democracy in Libya, as the regional power of many armed groups and their influence in the region make it increasingly difficult to find a stable political solution.
Although the UN-backed GNA government and its allied armed groups dominate western Libya, the head of the Libyan National Army (LNA), Khalifa Haftar, who served under Gaddafi's regime, dominates eastern Libya. In addition, there are a number of smaller Islamic organizations that dominate some of Libya's major cities and the south of the country.
At the heart of many of the current problems in Libya is one of the most pressing concerns that Islamic groups could have a chance to re-establish their supremacy without a strong central government. The previous Gaddafi government used both coercive and merger tactics to render such Islamic groups ineffective. But the weakness of the GNA and the international pressure to take a tougher stance against Islamic organizations are encouraging Haftar's action to challenge the GNA's power. Concerns about the growing influence of these Islamic organizations are sidelining important questions, from the future of Libya's democracy to the safety and security of civilians.
Although it is a difficult and slow process to find a political solution to the current crisis in Libya, such statements could threaten not only neighboring countries such as Egypt, but also Europe and beyond. Haftar's efforts are being supported. Egypt fears that political instability in Libya and the resulting void will allow Islamic groups to attack insecure territories such as the Sinai Peninsula, while France is concerned about the African sub-Saharan region, which plays a key role in its Africa policy.
Due to the long-running conflict between Haftar and the GNA government, many regional and influential forces are growing confident in Haftar's ability to defeat Islamic organizations. Such concerns, in turn, are helping Haftar gain training and information on weapons and ammunition from Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and France, as well as his organization, in his anti-GNA campaign. Most importantly, with the support of Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and France, he is being protected in the ongoing investigation into Haftar's actions against the United Nations-backed and internationally recognized GNA government.
On the contrary, there has been little criticism or opposition from key foreign countries to Haftar's armed organization. This is happening despite numerous reports of human rights abuses against Haftar-backed organizations. The report also notes that Haftar's actions are backed by some Salafi groups-who are opposed to foreign powers wanting to have such an organization.
The role of foreign powers in shaping the political crisis in Libya is traditionally viewed as wrong. Because of their geopolitical goals, foreign powers played a key role in overthrowing Gaddafi and subsequently sparking talks between the two opposition parties. Given the geopolitical animosity between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates in the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC), other countries, such as Turkey, are looking to expand their reach in the Middle East and North African (MENA) region. In doing so, they are trying to influence the political system in many Arab-Islamic and North African countries, such as Libya. These conflicting groups rely on the support of important foreign countries, so the situation is getting worse.
All of this has made Libya a hotbed of geopolitical competition for many local territories. The role of Turkey and Qatar has also been bold, as both countries have publicly supported the GNA against Haftar and other Islamic organizations. Haftar also threatened Turkey's presence in Libya. On the one hand, Saudi Arabia has said it is ready to provide financial support to Haftar's armed group. So another important power seems to be cautious about whether to have political ties with the United States, Haftar or the GNA. Russia's role in Libya also seems doubtful. Overall, the priorities of regional countries such as the United Arab Emirates and Turkey are clear, while the role of key foreign powers, such as France, and the United Nations, regarding Libya is quite ambiguous.
Given all these complications, it is clear that Libya has become very weak, and that is why foreign countries can easily turn the tide by influencing the internal complexities. In doing so, foreign powers have protected and encouraged Haftar's armed groups, rather than those who One must be held accountable for one's actions. In the case of Libya, foreign powers have played a key role in undermining the sovereign importance of the GNA government by supporting Haftar's armed groups. But the current political vacuum in Libya is fueling the terror of Islamic groups, which is likely to exacerbate many other serious problems.
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