It is in the best interest of both Russia and China to come together for each other, at least for a while, as there is confusion on the world stage.
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About a decade ago, Bobo Lo described the relationship between Russia and China as a "convenient joint." It has since been argued that relations between the two countries have been limited due to contentious history, potential issues of contention, growing disparities in power and a desire to maintain good relations with the West. But given some local situational interests, changing global equations, and Russia's strained relations with the West in particular, the situation between the two countries has certainly changed over the years.
In fact, after the global recession a few years ago, the two countries seemed to be reconciling. Especially after the crisis in Ukraine in 2014 and the annexation of Crimea, the reconciliation between the two countries began to grow. As Russia's relations with the West became more and more strained, Russia's partnership with the two countries became more important. The situation now is that China has become an important and strong partner of Russia on the world stage. The main reason for this is that Russia is still struggling to strengthen its relations with the countries of the Asian continent, while on the other hand, Russia's relations with the Eastern European countries as well as with the United States have deteriorated to a lesser extent than at any time in history.
Strengthening bilateral relations by taking into account each other's capabilities
2019 marks the 70th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries. Chinese President Xi Jinping has said the two countries have the best rapprochement in history. Analysts have also echoed Jinping's sentiments. The main reason for this is that in the mid-1950s, when Soviet Russia was actively involved in the formation of the People's Republic of China, there had never been such a cordial relationship between the two countries.
The two countries are currently holding regular meetings and meetings at the leadership level, in addition to the regular annual ministerial meetings and meetings with several executive committees and twenty sub-commissions. In 2018, the two countries had a bilateral trade of 100 billion. Under this trade, Russia supplies natural resources to China, while importing machinery, equipment and consumer goods from China. Importantly, China's share in total trade with Russia is 14.1 per cent, while Russia's share in trade with China is 1.7 per cent. China is heavily dependent on hydrocarbons, which is why its trade volume fluctuates as its price rises or falls. Of course, Russia is the only country that supplies raw materials to China.
China has become an important trading partner of Russia due to sanctions imposed by Western countries. In 2019, Russia was the world's largest supplier of crude oil to China, surpassing Saudi Arabia. A 400 billion deal was to be struck with Siberia to supply natural gas fuel to China. The agreement was stuck in a round of scrutiny as it was found that the rates set under the agreement were set at China's convenience. The deal fell through after sanctions were imposed on Russia.
Importantly, Russia intended to increase exports of natural gas to the Asian continent, but sidestepped it. The air pipeline to be built under the agreement was to be built exclusively for China. At the moment, China is worried that, if there is a dispute, the SLOCs, which carry more than 80 per cent of its oil imports, will be blocked. That is why China has been working tirelessly to ensure that its energy supply is uninterrupted, and that it does not have to depend on a single country for energy.
At the same time, Russia has changed its policy, allowing China to invest in the exploration of underground and upstream sectors in the eastern and Serbian regions. It seems that the relationship between the two countries has taken the next step, overcoming their old fears about 'Yellow Peril' and attracting investment. Last year, Russia's currency, the yuan, rose 15 percent. Importantly, it was part of Russia's effort to favor the yuan over the dollar.
Another important point is that beyond the economic ties between the two countries, the strategic partnership in the field of defense and military is much stronger. For example, on July 23, China and Russia launched their first joint air patrol over Japan and the East China Sea. Describing the incident, the Chinese defense minister had said that the air patrol was a step towards enhancing the joint operations capability of the two countries. It is worth noting that on July 18, 2019, Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev ordered his Defense Ministry to sign an agreement on joint military action with China, and the joint air patrol was completed shortly thereafter. After that, China immediately issued a white paper and clarified that military cooperation between China and Russia will continue to grow.
Russia also changed its policy of not supplying modern weapons to China because of the growing trust between the two countries. It had agreed in 2015 to sell Nala Su-35 fighter jets, as well as S400 missiles. Earlier, China had some difficulty in maintaining a strong claim to the East and South China Seas. However, after Taiwan, the South and East China Seas all came under Chinese airspace, the role of the United States was severely compromised and the balance of military dominance in the region was upset.
In 2018, China took part in Russia's largest military exercise, known as Vostok. The incident was a symbol of the changing relations between the two countries. Earlier, Russia had not invited any country for its internal exercises. That is why many thinkers have seen that this incident has lessened Russia's fears about China. Both nations China and Russia are the permanent members of the United Nations Security Council. And on the platform there, the picture is that they are playing a mutually sympathetic role on a number of issues, such as Iran, North Korea and Syria.
Political strategic balance
The two countries also seem to be striving for peace on their mutual borders. Because, if any dispute arises, both countries will have to cut off many resources needed for what is their priority, and it is not affordable for both of them to do so. During the Cold War, when Russia was a superpower, the situation has changed. Russia's dominance of Russia's east, as well as its growing influence in Central Asia, and China's lead in military technology are issues of concern for Russia. However, the picture is that it is not having any effect on the strengthening of relations between the two countries.
In fact, Russia has so far failed to build strong ties with other important countries in the East, which is a fact. At the same time, its relations with the West deteriorated, forcing Russia to seek new allies in order to realize its political and strategic existence. In this situation, a country like China certainly feels closer. This does not mean that China does not need Russia. On the contrary, China has given China more stability at the political and strategic level, and Russia is also an important supplier of energy and weapons to them. Now, in such a scenario, if there is any change in Russia's policy towards the US, it could be a major blow to China's position on the world stage as an emerging superpower, especially in the Asia-Pacific region.
Both countries agree on the concept of a world with different centers of power where the United States is not the best. Apart from that, the two countries have maintained the principle of non-interference in each other's internal affairs. As a result of their recognition of each other's sovereignty, the two countries' conceptions and interests in the alternative world did not match, but their relationship continued to grow. Both countries are united in their opposition to the Indo-Pacific region. Russia's foreign minister, Regei Lavrov, has called the region an "artificial and coercive creation" aimed at involving China. But at the same time, Russia has said it welcomes the resolution, which is not intended to deter anyone. Accordingly, both Russia and China, the United States, India,
Of course, there is no denying that there is some disparity in relations between the two countries. Because on the one hand, China is strengthening its position as a major power, and on the other hand, Russia seems to have accepted to some extent that we cannot equal it. However, Russia's existence as a superpower, its nuclear arsenal, its permanent membership in the United Nations Security Council, and its formidable arms industry have certainly had some influence beyond its neighbors, Syria and Afghanistan. At the same time, the world cannot easily ignore Russia if they take into account their actions against their neighbors.
Despite all this, the two countries have denied having a strong partnership. Because by doing so, neither country wants to encourage any local country to build closer ties with the United States. Besides, if the picture of such a partnership is exposed, Russia will be seen as a junior partner between the two countries, and Russia will certainly not like it to look like that. Another important reason for not disclosing that the two are partners is that in the long run, Russia could increase its dominance in the economy of its eastern region, and worries that Russia will remain as a supplier of raw materials to emerging superpowers.
It should be noted here that China has not openly supported Russia's actions in Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Crimea. Instead, China has adopted a policy of neutrality. Similarly, Russia has adopted a policy of neutrality in the South China Sea. (Importantly, Russia has close ties with Vietnam, which claims the South China Sea in addition to China, and the two countries are also engaged in arms trade and joint exploration for submarine oil in the South China Sea.)
In all these circumstances, after the two countries jointly conducted air patrols, the picture of growing closeness between them has created a big challenge for the United States. There is no denying that this is a matter of concern for India as well. It is clear that the picture that has developed between the two countries is that the profits from arms sales are important to Russia. In fact, it is important to note that Russia has changed its political policy since 2014, which has given it more leeway.
Tensions in relations with the West and constant sanctions have led Russia to move closer to China, which is embroiled in a trade war with the United States. Probably a entity to consider why there are not do ing so well. China knows that closer co-operation with the West can be more beneficial. And that's why they don't like many aspects of Russia's foreign policy. However, they also find it beneficial to maintain peaceful relations with Russia.
Conclusion
Although the two countries tend not to have a close relationship with each other, the fact remains that the political-strategic partnership between the two countries has become stronger. The two countries have not only managed to sidestep contentious issues and issues, but have also recognized each other's political and strategic importance in the changing global equations. Despite the many challenges facing the two countries, they have taken care that we do not provoke any dispute between them, and they have maintained mutual interests without hindering their relations.
In fact, at a time when China is making rapid progress, and the capabilities of both countries are expanding, the real question is how long Russia, as China's ally, can maintain this seemingly smooth relationship. In fact, Russia is more concerned, not with the longevity of the relationship, but with the fact that China will make progress at the local and global levels. While it is not certain whether the two countries will be close friends in the future, in the current climate of global turmoil, the idea of Russia and China coming together for a while is certainly not to their detriment.
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