The termination of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Force Treaty (INF) between the United States and Russia could lead to a new arms race.
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The Intermediate Range Nuclear Force Treaty (INF) between the United States and the Soviet Union (now Russia) came to an end on August 2. US President Donald Trump announced his withdrawal from the agreement six months ago and it has expired. While the focus of the INF agreement is primarily on Russia and the United States, its far-reaching effects will be felt by other nations as well. The INF agreement was known as a symbol of stability for nations other than Washington and Moscow. But now that the deal has expired, a new arms race is likely to begin.
Under the INF agreement of 1987, the United States and the Soviet Union agreed to remove 500 to 5,000 kilometers of nuclear and conventional surface-to-air ballistic and cruise missiles, including Soviet SS-20, American ground-launch cruise missiles (GLCMs) and Persian-2. As per the terms of the agreement, the two nations destroyed a total of 2,692 small, medium and medium-range missiles by the end of the agreement's implementation period. It is the only deal that destroys an entire array of weapons in use.
Reports of various violations of the INF agreement by Russia led to calls for the Trump administration to withdraw from the agreement. Violations by Russia are nothing new. These complaints have been going on since the time of the Obama administration. For example, despite the agreement, Russia developed a new cruise missile, the 9M729 (SSC-8, similar to NATO). In fact, according to NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, "the only thing that threatens the 1987 agreement is the persistent violations by Russia."
Russia has, of course, denied any wrongdoing under the agreement. According to a report by a senior Russian official , they did not violate any of the terms of the agreement. In addition, Russia's 9M729 missile has a range of 500 km, as stated in the INF agreement. In fact, Russian Commander-in-Chief Mikhail Matvevsky has said that the maximum range of the missile is 480 km.
Concerns are also being raised about the decision to withdraw from the agreement from the United States and other countries. Sen. Bob Menendez (a Democrat in New Jersey), a senior member of the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee , says withdrawing from the INF agreement without pursuing it is tantamount to fertilizing a new arms race. According to Menendez, "Russia will definitely invest in updating and developing its weapons system."
It is equally true that Russia will build more INF-class missiles in response,. But another reason for the US withdrawal from the deal is China. A major challenge to the INF agreement is the large number of missiles developed and deployed by China. As China is not a party to the agreement, no sanctions are imposed on it. This is in the form of upsetting the military balance in East Asia and elsewhere.
In fact, in October last year, Trump said, "We have to develop these sciences before Russia, China, or anyone else can come to us and focus on developing these sciences." If China and Russia are building such weapons and only the US is adhering to the agreement, then we do not agree. "
There is a golden mean in all this. According to a recent US-China Economic and Security Review report , China has more than 2,000 ballistic and cruise missiles (about 95%) that could violate the INF agreement, according to US officials . So there seems to be a real reason for the US withdrawal. This means that unless China actively participates in any agreement; Until then, no future agreement will be put forward by the Trump administration.
China is also worried about the termination of the INF agreement. The real reason behind their concern is that the United States will deploy conventional ground-launch missiles in East Asia after the termination of the agreement. This will make China more capable now. Experts say "the development of Chinese missiles will accelerate now that the United States is free to deploy INF-capable missiles in Asia ." But as long as China continues to build missiles, the United States, Russia and India will have to develop more and more of their own technology. This means that the arms race could escalate further.
As a result of this competition, Japan had suggested the idea of creating an alternative multilateral agreement for the INF agreement. But China clearly disagreed with any such agreement. According to Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying , "the INF is a bilateral agreement between the United States and Russia. If the agreement becomes multilateral, it could have far-reaching political, military and other consequences. It will not get consent from China. " The idea of a tripartite agreement between the US, Russia and China was also opposed by Beijing. China has said that "a complementary and strong basis for negotiating a tripartite arms treaty does not exist at all and therefore China will not participate in any such agreement."
Maybe this is a primary level step. But if that doesn’t happen, a new arms race could emerge in which Asia will have a stake. This could have far-reaching effects on the Indo-Pacific region and could lead to dangerous developments.
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