Israeli politics is influenced by the wars in the Gaza Strip and the Palestinian question. An article discussing India's role and politics in Israel.
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Israel has now retreated from the turbulent fortnight. The first was the dangerous edge of war, and the second was the fall of the government. The arms deal with Israel and Hamas, the armed group that controls Gaza, has been controversial. This led to the withdrawal of allies from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's coalition government, but Netanyahu's government has survived. But the situation can simmer anytime.
The first was a rocket attack from Gaza earlier this month - 500 missiles were fired at the border. As a result, Israel bombed 160 Hamas. - This is the latest in a series of incidents in which Israel and Gaza will face each other with full military might. Moreover, since March 30, 2018, people in Gaza have been regularly gathering near the border, sometimes violently. They are demanding the return of refugees and their descendants from Palestine. The campaign was expected to run for 6 weeks - from March 30 to May 15 - but even after that the campaign has continued on a large scale for the past few months.
In fact, thousands of people in Gaza have been protesting for the past two Fridays. Of course, the reason Hamas is away from the fence this time is because of the arms deal brokered by Egypt. Under this agreement, the cash received in Qatari currency was distributed to the coastal settlements and some other financial concessions like this were given. This is expected to ease the pressure on the people of Gaza and keep Israel's southern border quiet for longer, but the foundation of this agreement is very fragile.
The people of the Gaza Strip have come to understand that Hamas has been sold to Israel under the arms embargo because the demonstrations, which took place far from the border, do not affect the Israeli people and do not put pressure on the government.
The Palestinian Authority (PA), based in Ramallah, is internationally recognized as the representative of the whole of Palestine. But their authority is limited to the West Bank. The organization also criticized the agreement because its provisions would reduce its already declining rights. The Fatah party is seen as the facilitator of Palestinian rights. The party was violently expelled from the Gaza Strip decades ago. There have been several previous attempts to reconcile Fatah and Hamas, but they have failed, and they both see each other in the water. In fact, the Palestinian Authority recently decided to cut off Gaza bureaucrats' salaries, electricity and fuel subsidies, increasing public pressure on Hamas to accept the rights of the Palestinian Authority and approve the reconciliation plan proposed last year. However, Hamas's fierce fighting with Israel and the subsequent resignation of Israel's defense minister and a brief respite from the arms deal have left Hamas in the lurch. It only helped to increase the influence in Gaza, leaving the Palestinian Authority (PA) alone.
There has been a lot of criticism of the arms embargo in Israel, especially in southern Israeli society. According to these critics, Hamas needs a tougher answer. Of course, this is not a far-sighted solution. Previous military operations have not only undermined Hamas's terrorist infrastructure, but have also had a devastating effect on civilian life and property. Israel has not succeeded in establishing a credible barrier against Hamas, and now other security concerns have arisen, such as Iran's presence along the northern border with Syria. Unwilling to take risks, Netanyahu said it was better to "manage" the situation in Gaza than to provoke a regional conflict. This shows their support for the arms deal, which has become an important political issue in Israel.
On November 14, Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman resigned, and his hard-line right-wing party, Israel Betaineu, parted ways with the Likud party in the ruling coalition government. Lieberman sees the arms deal as a "surrender to terrorism," and that's why the lead has come to an end. Shortly afterwards, Education Minister Naftali Bennett and Justice Minister Ailet Shaked, a right-wing Habiyat Hayudi party, threatened to drop the same. Likud's Netanyahu succeeded in curbing them, but the coalition government is currently in power with a very small majority. Out of 120 seats in Parliament, the Front has only 61 seats.
The term of this government expires next November and the Prime Minister may declare elections at any moment before that. (But voting can only take place three months after the election is declared.) Lieberman wanted to force the government to hold early elections by resigning.
Time is of the essence here. First, Netanyahu is in a weak position at the moment. The firing from Gaza and the arms deal have drawn criticism. Second, Lieberman's tenure as defense minister has been devalued, and his supporters feel he has not done as well as he once did. By resigning from the arms deal, he distanced himself from the government's surrender to Gaza. Moreover, he challenged himself to Netanyahu. Although he is not a challenging contender for the PM's job, his support has grown exponentially since the incident.
Lieberman was not alone in his decision to hold early elections. Bennett has made the same calculation. That's why he publicly threatened the prime minister and demanded the post of defense minister - bidding himself the right-wing leader of the future. The campaign failed when Netanyahu slapped him and forced him to back down.
Apart from that, the person who wants early elections is Finance Minister Moshe Kohlan and his star-studded Kulanu party, which made its debut in 2015. His party did worse than expected from opinion polls, which saw them at gaining about a third of the support. But with Netanyahu's hand under the stone, Kulanu's party will succeed in swaying some of the Liquid party's votes.
Netanyahu has been very restrained in answering this. Netanyahu is a ruler who negotiates for peace, and he remains calm even when politicians withdraw for war and speak of overthrowing the government in times of national crisis.
And now that his government is in power, Netanyahu's focus is on holding the election as late as possible. It may seem strange, but a few months ago, when the pre-election results were very high and there were no corruption cases against them, Netanyahu wanted early elections. But now the situation has changed.
Netanyahu needs to go for a while so that people forget about the Gaza crisis. It will also take time for them to recover from the three corruption cases.
In the first quarter of 2019, the Attorney General is expected to decide whether to prosecute the Prime Minister in these three cases. Netanyahu may not be willing to run in the by-elections, even if the allegations go against the allegations.
But they will not even want an election campaign until next November when they have such a delicate lead. Whatever the election, Polls suggests that Netanyahu is more likely to win, but given his personal and political problems, he seems to need more votes.
They need to win more to build a stronger lead. Which will preserve his legacy of being the Prime Minister for four terms. The record is currently held by Israel's first prime minister, David Ben-Gurion. Opposition groups called for a boycott of the by-elections. But they have to make sure they are in the right place at the right time.
What does all this mean for India? The upheaval in Israeli local politics will not have much effect on Indo-Israeli relations. Bilateral support for the Indo-Israeli relationship in Jerusalem can be expected from either the current government or the post-Netanyahu era. Nevertheless, the internal political equations and the characteristics of the new front will of course have an impact on how to deal with the Palestinian question. For example, Netanyahu does not like big military matches but prefers small targeted battles that can be easily controlled. Their successor may have a different view. The incoming successor may face the possibility of a complete collapse of the Palestinian Authority (PA). This will completely change Israel's security equations with the West Bank. Right now India has successfully pursued its de-hyphenation strategy by balancing the Israeli-Palestinian policy. But internal instability between Israel and Palestine could pose a challenge to this policy. In addition, it can cause regional fires.
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