India's non-alignment over developments in the South China Sea will not only lead to end of Sino-Indian friendship, but also attract trouble to India in the long run.
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The South China Sea has once again become a topic of discussion. Incidents involving Chinese, Vietnamese and Filipino ships have raised tensions in the region. It is now difficult to ignore China's expanding claims at sea, and it is now facing strong opposition from regional states, with the United States also showing some support.
Last month, the foreign ministers of the 10 member nations of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) met. It focused on China's growing movement in the energy-rich region of the South China Sea and its intrusion into Vietnam's special economic zone. A final statement from the overall discussion at the meeting clarified that "some ministers expressed concern over land reform, initiatives and serious developments in the region."
On the other hand, China does not seem to be ready to back down from Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi's warning to outsiders not to "deliberately escalate past disputes or difference of opinions." He also highlighted that advancements were made on the issue of ultimate code of the conduct with the ASEAN (ASEAN).
China claims an area in the South China Sea that carries $3.4 trillion worth of shipping annually. Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan and Vietnam are also involved in the claims. The changes that China has made in its historic role since 2010 on this issue cannot be ignored. Since then, China has aggressively created artificial islands in this part of the sea and is also trying to change the lands here by deploying armies on it.
The United States was also aware of the potential threats posed by China, and with the help of the Trump administration, raised the issue with its allies. He insisted that there should be freedom of navigation operations and strongly supported regional nations.
At the recent ASEAN meeting, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo also spoke out against China's "coercion" of neighboring countries over the South China Sea dispute and the issue of the dam they built on the Mekong River. He also called on his colleagues in the region to speak out against the ongoing violence in China's South China Sea, and said the dam, built by China, had caused river water levels in Southeast Asia to reach a decade-low.
The dispute comes as the United States has decided to impose a 10% tariff on goods worth $300 billion imported from China, effective September, as relations between the two nations deteriorate.
Regional nations are still trying to adapt to China's behavior. The Philippines says five Chinese warships have sailed from Manila's 12-mile stretch of sea without warning the government. They have protested against the Chinese ships encircling the Philippine island of Titu. This is the first time a Chinese fishing boat has sunk a Filipino ship in the EEZ area of the Philippines in June. China later claimed that the sinking of the Filipino ship was an accident.
In the month of May, a Chinese Coast Guard ship was also found near an oil block near the Malaysian waters. A Chinese survey ship, accompanied by other ancillary ships, was later spotted operating near an oil field in Vietnam's EEZ region, sparking the first major dispute since 2014.
Vietnam has since demanded that China remove its survey ships from the oil field near its shores. The United States has also backed Vietnam's demands, condemning China's "provocative behavior" and its "destabilizing actions." Another interesting fact in the case of Vietnam is that Rosneft, a Russian state oil company, also produces oil near the oil block in the disputed region. Given the growing ties between Russia and China, it remains to be seen whether Russia will follow China on this issue.
China's insistent role in the region must, of course, be viewed in a broader context. Beijing wants to gradually assert its sovereignty over the sea. His recent actions acknowledge that ASEAN is also embracing the Indo-Pacific approach, given the pull-pull power of US Indo-Pacific policy.
It is a bit difficult for a country that does not accept the Indo-Pacific structure to accept this fact. His insistence is that the nations of the region should not partner with foreign countries in the matter of coastal energy resources or carry out energy research initiatives as it would limit political movement.
While Vietnam has provided India with reports of developments in the South China Sea, India has not commented. India, which has a higher priority on improving relations with China, may have underestimated this, but given India's trade interests in the region, which claims to be a major power in the Indo-Pacific region, it would be a short-sighted decision.
If India does not raise its voice and support the interests of small regional nations, China will continue to pursue its own claims, ignoring international law and the basic duties of the state, justifying its powerful policies. If India remains silent while the entire region is in turmoil, the declaration of its future open and independent Indo-Pacific power will remain a vulgar one. India's silence will not only be conducive to a long-term friendship with China, but will also have an adverse effect on relations between the two countries.
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