From India's point of view, these growing developments between China and Iran are certainly worrisome.
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Iran is currently the most isolated country in the world. The situation in Iran has worsened, especially since US President Donald Trump announced his withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (JCPOA). As a result, Iran's economy has weakened dramatically. In such a scenario, Iran looks to France-led Europe with hope. Iran hopes that Europe will save us by taking some middle ground.
Of course, as Iran seems to be left alone, some countries in the arena of world politics see this as an opportunity. At a time when sanctions were being imposed on Iran in 2017, a Chinese businessman in Iran said, "Iran is an important place at the center of everything." Because China's Belt and Road (BRI) project is expected to benefit Iran greatly. At present, China is Iran's largest trading partner. Significantly, after the United States withdrew from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (JCPOA) in 2018, Western businessmen and governments gradually stepped in, and China is slowly gaining ground in trade with Iran.
In fact, the situation is such that now China can hold more ground than Iran. According to information available on a 25-year long-term agreement between Iran and China, China has taken some steps that could boost Iran's economy, especially its neglected oil and gas sector. According to one source, by 2019, Iran will have 160 billion barrels of renewable oil reserves. This is so high that it will be the third largest oil field in the world.
Under the agreement, $280 billion will be invested in Iran's oil industry. In addition, an additional $120 billion will be invested in the development of Iran's mining infrastructure and manufacturing sector. The biggest beneficiary of this investment will be the railway sector in Iran. Importantly, one of these proposed railways is a route connecting Central Asia via Iran and China's Xinjiang province. The paradox is that this is the same city where China has housed numerous citizens of the Uyghur Muslim community in religious re-education camps. It is worth noting that Iran has never openly opposed China's treatment of its citizens.
In addition to the investments mentioned above, it is also known that China will deploy 5,000 security guards in Iran to protect its investments and projects. In fact, China's deployment of such military equipment on foreign soil is now inevitably unavoidable.
China is constantly trying to show that we are a superpower just like the United States. That is why China is gradually increasing its strength on the economic and military fronts in Asia and beyond, to counter the US. At present, China has never started military operations in the East African country of Djibouti, which is considered the horn of Africa. Rumor has it that China is preparing to set up another military base in northern Afghanistan.
Of course, while these numbers are staggering, it is important to note that some of the information available about Iran and China sends a message to the West. More importantly, Iran's role than that of China, which is pursuing a single policy, has certainly made the West think. Of course, whatever the situation may be, on the one hand, the US and influential Western countries and investors under US influence are going through a recession, while at the same time, it is clear that China is investing heavily in Iran.
Importantly, while all this news is being discussed, the information provided by economists in the oil sector is based on statements made only by officials in Iran. But this information does not explain China's role, will or policy in all these developments.
Of course, no matter what the situation may look like, and it may seem like a big deal in terms of boosting Iran's economy, it doesn't seem to be happening as easily. The main reason for this is that China, on the other hand, is on its way to becoming a major trading partner of Israel. Of course, this place is still occupied by the United States. At the same time, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made a statement in 2017, saying, "The partnership between Israel and China is a marriage in heaven." At the same time, China's growing ties with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) are not to be forgotten after Chinese President Xi Jinping's visit to the United Arab Emirates.
During the visit, Xi Jinping was given a grand welcome by the United Arab Emirates on his own Air Force plane. In fact, all of this has led to new developments in the Gulf for China. Of course, China's economic expertise is a key factor in this. Given all these circumstances, China will have to follow the policy of a neighboring country like India, which has been working for many years to establish itself in this geographical area. They will have to show the skill of manipulating the Shia, Sunni and Jewish centers of power at the same time. On the one hand, all local powers, such as Israel, Saudi Arabia and Iran, certainly want China to side with them.
In such a scenario, if China makes a strategic move to build its military base in Iran and invests billions of dollars in building infrastructure in Iran, it is certain that China could incur the wrath of Saudi Arabia and Israel. Beyond that, it is likely to have a major adverse effect on trade with the United States.
The fact of the matter is that the trade war between the US and China is trying to spread its wings. It should be noted here that the vast oil reserves in Iran have benefited large economies in Asian countries such as India and China. At the same time, China has not taken Iran's nuclear program seriously, and has warned that there will be no conflict with the United States on the issue. But now that Trump has a skewed view of China's economy, China has drastically reduced its special provisions for the United States.
Naturally, these developments have created a vacuum in China's geopolitical landscape. And more importantly, Iran paints a picture that we can be a country that fills this void. In fact, given all these developments and the role of France, Germany and other important European countries, China has a unique opportunity to put pressure on the Trump administration. This is because France, Germany and some other important European countries are still urging Iran to re-open its economy by joining the nuclear deal.
From India's point of view, these growing developments between China and Iran are certainly worrisome. India and Iran have been at loggerheads over the development of the Chabahar port for the past several years. The port has been commercially operational since the beginning of this year. This has opened up new options for imports and exports to Afghanistan as well. As per the plan of Chabahar Port, this port has a great potential to be closer to Central Asia and India through the necessary communication and connectivity projects in the areas of energy, transport, personal connectivity.
Of course, all the plans for this have been drawn up on paper. But the intention to invest heavily in all of this is nowhere to be seen. Of course, the Indian economy is relatively limited in terms of making large investments in such projects, but at the same time, China can easily invest in them. But will all this happen according to the kind of publicity that has been given to all these developments in Iran? So the answer is probably 'NO' that's it.
As mentioned above, some of the figures that have come to light are from the Iranian side. Perhaps out of all this, Iran is trying to sow some seeds against the United States. Importantly, in return, France is pushing for Iran to join the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (JCPOA). Considering the सोबत 15 billion package talks with Iran, it could lead to chaos in Europe.
Ayatollah is the one who has the most influence or control over all political decisions and business in Iran. Not only that, but the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) considers Ayatollah as its leader. Now, if such ayatollah decides to give China a foothold in Iran in order to woo the West, it is likely that Ayatollah, the supreme leader, will suffer the most. This could lead to Ayatollah losing control of all industries and businesses in Iran, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), as well as the resources they looted during their operations in Syria.
A closer look at China's policy towards the Central Asian region reveals that China's approach to the region is almost the same as India's. China is taking the necessary precautions to stay away from local disputes and tensions in the region and to ensure that none of its actions send a message that we are taking sides. China needs markets and natural resources to continue the path of development it has taken. Now, in such a situation, it will not be easy for China to follow its own path in Iran, which is a relatively geographically common territory. At the same time, the figures put forward by the Iranian authorities are, of course, a big news item to the media.
A statement made by a French ambassador on Iran should be noted here, "Believe it or not, dealing with Iran is certainly not as easy as it seems."
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