If the United States had controlled Pakistan more than the peace deal, the interference in the presidential election, the billions of dollars spent, the situation would not be as it is today.
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Talks between the US and the Taliban are still ongoing. The future of Afghanistan and its people is at an uncertain end. It has been almost a year since Jhalme Khalizad was specially appointed to negotiate with militant groups in Afghanistan. After nine rounds of talks, after a number of pacts, after the political statements made and the petty politics that followed, we are told that the two countries are close to an agreement. Whatever agreement is reached in the next few days, one thing is clear: it will not be a peace agreement. Once agreed, it would be an agreement to withdraw US troops from Afghanistan. It will take some more time for a peace agreement to be reached. At least until the Afghans decide for themselves what role to play in the Taliban.
To use the same old saying again, America is no longer in a dilemma. Now she has lowered the barrel shell she held against the Taliban. If they have not stopped the war in Afghanistan, they have lost the chance to win. Some regional leaders and deputy leaders, who felt that the United States would not give up its efforts until the agreement was reached, would be disappointed.
It is also a fact that we can do as everyone pleases, that their hope will not last long. On the other hand, Washington is aware that mistakes made in the past do not need to happen again. But, both countries have made some reports and some statements in the last few weeks. From that, the real situation has come to light, there can be no agreement to withdraw a 'good' or to maintain peace in a civilized manner.
The first example of such a pattern is President Trump's statement that the United States will not withdraw all its troops from Afghanistan, but will keep 8,600 troops there. The first question that comes to mind is, is this a good thing or a bad thing? Unfortunately, the answer is no. The United States cannot withdraw all its troops from Afghanistan, as doing so would increase the Taliban's dangerous terrorist activities. They will gain more territory and could pose a threat to Kabul as well.
The United States, on the other hand, cannot keep all its troops in Afghanistan because doing so would hurt the Taliban, who will continue to fight until the United States is defeated. While what President Trump says is accepted by the Taliban's negotiating team in Doha, the rest of the Taliban members will not necessarily agree, as they have always taken the position that they will keep the sciences in their hands only after the US troops withdraw completely.
Another example of making it clear that Afghanistan no longer has a good option is the question of whether this discussion will really be of any use. The support for the debate is that, at least if not tried, the country has nothing to look forward to. However, even if the US extends its presence for some time to come, it is unlikely that the US position in the discussion will increase. There is no guarantee that they will succeed because they have never been able to do so in the last 18 years.
The second objection is that there is no indication that the Taliban have flexed or changed their principles. Just last week, a Taliban spokesman claimed that al-Qaeda was not responsible for the 9/11 attacks. There have been reports that the Taliban will continue to fight Afghan forces regardless of any agreement with the United States. So, does it really make sense to make a deal?
There is no doubt that the US has made many mistakes in the case of Afghanistan. All three US presidents, Bush, Obama, and Trump, have taken steps that would be detrimental to US war efforts. The biggest mistake of the US is to fail to take any concrete measures in the case of Pakistan. If Pakistan had been in control of the withdrawal agreement, the peace deal, political interference in the presidential election, the cost of billions of dollars, the situation would not have been so dire today.
Whether the United States withdraws from Afghanistan or not, and whether or not the agreement is made on the side of the Taliban, Pakistan will not withdraw from its role. They won't even think of Afghan citizens. In fact, just a few weeks ago, the Pakistani ambassador to the US had threatened the US that if it wanted Pakistan's help in Afghanistan, it should follow Pakistan's lead on the issue of constitutional change in Kashmir. There is no different proof of Pakistan's fake nature of sowing terrorism in India and Afghanistan.
The Taliban's close ties to the Haqqani network, which is backed by Pakistan's intelligence service, have grown stronger over the past few years. It will also strengthen Pakistan's belief that if the Taliban agrees to a deal that gives them some power and authority, we can make our foreign policy a success with the help of any of our representative groups.
Another shortcoming in this discussion is that the Taliban is a multi-generational organization that has been ravaged by internal power struggles and hostilities over the past several years, leaving the United States unable to recognize that it has split and created many new groups. The Quetta Shura (named after the city of Quetta in Balochistan) is one of its most influential branches and is part of the decision-making committee. It has close ties to the Peshawar Shura and Miranshah Shura (Waziristan, Pakistan) groups, which are controlled by the Haqqani Network.
The Mashhad Shura in the western part of the country, named after the northern Iranian city, is a group with close ties to Iran. Rashul Shura from the West, who split from the main group after Mulla Mansoor took over the leadership, is another important group that is causing trouble. In the northern region of Afghanistan, the Taliban have proved their mettle by challenging government forces and taking control of districts and central cities. It may be good and beneficial to discuss with the leaders in Doha, but how will the agreement reached through the talks apply to all these groups and sub-branches of the Taliban? How will they ensure that all their sub-branches and all groups follow the same rules?
The Taliban's agreement to suspend 8,600 troops for some time has been accepted by the Taliban, which may be the best solution at the moment (which is far from possible). This could be the first step towards a phased withdrawal until a consensus is reached between the Afghan people and the Taliban. Unfortunately, it is also extremely difficult to imagine that the Taliban has agreed to such an agreement, as doing so would seem to destroy their legitimacy in the eyes of all their jihadi volunteers and colleagues. The world will know what kind of withdrawal agreement will come to the table in the next few days or weeks. But for now, peace is a long way off for Afghanistan and its people.
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