Turkey-US supply of Russian-made S-400 missiles to Turkey There is a big dilemma in Turkey-NATO relations.
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Russia's supply of the first phase of the Russian-made S-400 anti-missile system to Turkey on July 12 has raised tensions between Turkey and the United States. The long-simmering question is the policy of both the United States and Turkey on Syria. Turkey, in particular, is accountable to the United States, which has been at odds with NATO, and the issue has also exposed Russia's pressure on Turkey.
Background of the S-400 issue
Following Turkey's purchase of the S-400, Turkey has made significant deals with a Russian organization blacklisted under US law, the Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA). Therefore, secondary restrictions will be imposed on Turkey. Meanwhile, the United States has postponed its decision to supply F-35 fighter jets to Turkey. The White House said in a statement that "US F-35 fighter jets and Russia's S-400 system cannot be used by a single country because the system will be used by Russian intelligence to study the updated capabilities of F-35 aircraft." The process of excluding Turkey from the F-35 sales program has also begun.
US President Donald Trump has refused to enforce the law, prompting a backlash from Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. (The King of France was told that the Ottoman Sultan was not the only owner who could do as he pleased, and that he had to be consulted.) It will be important to see how Trump enforces this law.
Erdogan's side is not the only one to be misunderstood about US policy. Despite repeated warnings in recent months by US officials about what would happen if Turkey joined the S-400, Trump has often gone beyond the basics. For example, in late June, when the G20 summit was approaching, Trump blamed his predecessors for the problem. He mentioned President Barack Obama "At any cost refrain him (Erdogan) from purchasing the Patriot missile system he has his eyes on. And then after he buys it from someone else, they say, we'll sell you a Patriot. I think it was unfair to treat him that way "
The time to discuss this is over. Turkey has twice flouted NATO's Interoperable Patriot Batteries deal. The agreement presented to them was also financially sound. There was no political pressure on that agreement. Ankara brushed off the deal, mainly because it was looking for technology transfers to create an indigenous air defense industry. Turkey initially sought to acquire the Chinese system, which was scrapped in 2015 under US pressure, and two years later signed the S-400 agreement with Russia.
Due to the fragile economic situation in Turkey, even the imposition of mild sanctions on them could be detrimental. The United States last year imposed sanctions on two Turkish officials in connection with the October 2018 arrest of US cleric Andrew Brunson. The US cleric was accused in July 2016 of plotting to assassinate Erdogan. These restrictions were primarily symbolic. However, the restrictions, along with some taxes, were enough to create a financial crisis in Turkey. Even today, the financial crisis is not over.
It should also be noted that the S-400 anti-missile system, which is claimed to be the best in the world, has been called into question. This system has not been used on any battlefield to date. This system was first adopted by China. China did not find it effective. A key feature of this system was believed to be the ability to detect stealth planes. However, that did not happen. China's conclusion is that even F-22s with less updated F-35s could penetrate the system.
It should also be noted that the pre-S-400 Russian air defense system, the sapshell, failed in Syria. The Russian-backed Bashar al-Assad government shot down a Russian fighter jet and a surface-to-air missile hit northern Cyprus earlier this month. Russia has recently moved two S-400 missile systems into Syria. There is no evidence that they were used successfully.
Why did Turkey accept Russia's agreement, despite the technology and the political animosity that is being questioned about its capabilities, which has deepened the political quagmire? The short answer is 'politics'.
NATO's opportunism and Russia's opportunism
The first political reason is related to the 2016 coup attempt in Turkey. Prior to July 2016, Erdogan had to face death due to an air defense crisis, a nightmare of an attack by rebel members of the air force and a bombing of the Turkish parliament. He made it a point to build an air defense system in his capital.
Besides, how Erdogan interpreted the coup attempt is a problem. Erdogan's intellectual background made him suspicious of the West, and his administration's approach exacerbated the problem. In early 2004, as noted by the then US ambassador, Erdogan distanced himself from the flow of credible information. He is surrounded by inadequate and narrow-minded advisers (which have been exacerbated by attempts to raise the issue), which means that he is unaware of many of the incidents, including the fact that "Western countries are conspiring against Islam, a victim of Islamic ideology."
In the case before 2016, Erdogan's government may be right to say that the Hizmat movement was behind it. The leader of the movement, Fathullah Gulen, was based in the United States and Washington refused to extradite him because Turkey's requests did not meet legal standards. Many in Erdogan's Justice and Development Party (AKP) and those close to him have taken it to mean that Gulen is a mastermind of American (perhaps Israeli) intelligence agencies. The idea was consistently leaked to the media in support of the Turkish government and to Brunons' written indictments.
Another political issue related to Syria is the separation of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), a separatist organization that has been at war with Turkey since 1980, from the US list of terrorists, armed and trained by the US to fight ISIS. In August 2016, Turkey took direct action in Syria, pushing ISIS across the border and halting the expansion of the PKK. In the second operation carried out in early 2018, PKK destroyed another base on the border.
When Turkey invaded Syria to stop fighting on two fronts, it made an agreement with the Russians. Ankara will not support anti-Assad forces, it became an important factor in allowing the fall of the city of Aleppo; In return, Russia-Assad-Iran forces will leave Turkish territory without causing any damage.
There is a sense of bitterness in Turkey about the United States in light of the threat posed to the PKK by the US support - and then by its misdirection at the time of the resolution. It is unlikely that Turkey will make a third anti-PKK incursion this week into US-protected territory in eastern Syria, given the renewed threat. However, such things only add to the already deteriorating environment. Taking advantage of this, Russia has an opportunity to wed in NATO.
It is often said that Turkey and Russia are growing closer. This statement is true, because the meetings between Erdogan and Russian President Vladimir Putin have increased. Turkey-Russia defense ties have also expanded more than ever. However, it cannot be said that these relations are friendly. Since the rise of modern Russia in the 16th century, relations between Turkey and Russia have remained hostile, except for a few years after 1920.
After the Bolshevik Revolution, Turkey found Russia a convenient ally in its struggle for independence against Western powers. In the Cold War, Turkey was a hypocritical ally of the West. Joe was defending the south of Europe and sending troops to Korea to repel communist aggression. Even after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia began to support the PKK in Turkey, and Turkey responded to Russia by supporting the Chechen separatists.
To date, Russia has been active in destabilizing Turkey. Russia is threatening Turkey using its financial and energy credentials and using it whenever it feels hostile to Turkey, maintaining links to the PKK. It would be really appropriate to describe what happened to Turkey in Syria. In late 2016, the preoccupation with the Russian-dominated Astana process, including with Iran, reduced Turkey's dominance and increased Russia's hegemony, rather than bringing Turkey closer to Russia.
Astana's plan to "reduce the severity of the problem", designed to end the war and reduce violence, strengthened the pro-Assad forces, which were weak, so that they could deal with the remaining rebel strongholds. Idlib, the last stronghold, comes under the guardianship of nominal Turkey. Half of the infiltrators in Idlib are mainstream rebels under Turkish control. However, the region is dominated by the jihadist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). A ceasefire was signed between Turkey and Russia in September 2018 in a bid to eradicate HTS from Turkey. However, that was almost impossible and that did not happen.
In early May 2019, Russian and Syrian government forces launched an offensive in Idlib, citing the presence of HTS terrorists. Given the possibility that this will not be the final war, Iran has assured that its forces will not participate. After the fall of Abu al-Duhur in the east a year ago, the rebels intend to take another step west this time. If Turkey tries to withdraw from the S-400 agreement, Russia has threatened to invade Turkey, creating a wave of thousands of refugees and instigating the flow of jihadist terrorists into its territory.
In spite of all this, the Iranians could not remain neutral in the case of Idlib. Due to Tehran's limited involvement, Assad's supporters have taken control of only a small part of Idlib in the last three months. More to the point, Turkey opened up stockpiles of weapons for the rebels in Idlib. On Wednesday, Turkish-controlled rebels fired artillery at Russia's Hamamim airport on the Syrian coast. It was as if Turkey had provoked Russia. In addition, Turkish forces launched occasional drone strikes on Hamamim.
Conclusion
Things have gained momentum in Syria over the past few months. Iran is directly involved in the operations. And like Assad, Iran is determined to regain control of the entire country by force of arms.
Russia's position in Syria is extremely weak and Russia is strategically dependent on Iran. All attempts by the US and Israel to get Russia to take control of Iran have failed. And at a time when Turkey does not rely on Russia's power, Turkey can influence many developments. This time the matter has come to light.
The big question is how the US will respond to the S-200 supply. A harsh response to severe sanctions would not only harm Turkey and expose potential discrepancies in relations, but would also have serious economic consequences for many European countries. And if the United States responds mildly and imposes mild sanctions on Turkey, lifting Turkey's suspension from the F-35 program, Erdogan's misconduct could be rewarded. At the same time, creating a climate of reconciliation between the two NATO nations, the United States and Turkey, will achieve two things - one is the opportunity to pass a resolution in Syria, and the other is Russia's efforts to reduce the influence of Western security forces.
The matter is now in the hands of Donald Trump and therefore it is difficult to predict. Trump has often announced policies on Twitter, much to the surprise of his own officials. And in this case, even the President does not seem to know what he is thinking. Speaking at the president's office on Thursday about the sanctions on Turkey, Trump said, "We are not paying attention to that right now." That said, too
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