Although the Sino-Myanmar railway appears to be a transport project between the two countries, it has long-term and strategic implications for India.
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| Photo (https://unsplash.com/photos/345C6j2jaKA) |
According to media reports, China and Myanmar are considering examining the feasibility of a railway line connecting Moss and Mandalay in Myanmar. According to some reports, China has begun the process of connecting Kunming, the capital of Yunnan province, with Ruili, a city on the Sino-Myanmar border. According to media reports, it is not clear whether the two railways will be connected or run separately. Nevertheless, economic relations between China and Myanmar will receive new impetus when these two railways become operational. It will also boost bilateral trade between China and Myanmar.
In 2017, the author visited Ruili, a Chinese city on the Sino-Myanmar border. Then the author got to see the growing trade between Ruili and Moose. The steps taken by China to study the feasibility of this railway project are in line with the infrastructure projects that China is building in Myanmar.
In the last few years , China has regained its lost influence in Myanmar . Surprisingly , since the advent of democracy in Myanmar, bilateral economic relations have become stronger and more institutionalized . Myanmar has formally participated in China's Belt and Road project . The two countries are working together to make the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor a reality.
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| Photo (The Economist) |
Although the railway line between China and Myanmar appears to be a transport project between the two countries, it has some long-term and strategic implications for India. From a security point of view, historically, India has faced many security challenges along the Myanmar border. In this context, b. Raman's book, The Kaoboys of R&AW Down Memory Lane, states that Chinese troops used the Myanmar route before the 1962 war to pose a threat to northeastern Indian states. Raman goes on to say that at the outbreak of the Sino-Indian war in 1962, the Chinese army had appointed local herdsmen in northern Myanmar to streamline the movement and logistics of the war. Given this, China may challenge the security of Northeast India in the future.
In his book 'Insurgent Crossfire-North-East India', author Subir Bhowmik writes that the rebels from the northeastern Indian state of Nagaland entered China in 1960 via Myanmar. In fact, according to media reports, Paresh Barua, the military chief of the United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA-INDEPENDENT) , is living in Ruili .
Given the above facts, it is only natural that the proposed railway projects in any part of the Sino-Myanmar border would create an atmosphere of suspicion in India's security apparatus. The geopolitical situation in India's neighboring countries is complex and constantly changing. Given this, it would not be wrong to assume that if tensions between India and China escalate, China will definitely consider the option of bringing troops to India's border by rail. China, on the other hand, could signal to India in a small conflict or in the event of a diplomatic crisis by mobilizing troops in Yunnan province and demonstrating its strength. Given this situation, it is imperative for India to keep a close eye on what is happening on this front.
From India's point of view, it is important for China and Myanmar to raise doubts about the purpose of these projects at the diplomatic level and seek clarification. It is important for India to seek assurances from Myanmar that the project could pose security concerns for India.
In the current context of the improvement in bilateral relations between India and China , it would be appropriate for China to satisfy itself about the purpose of the project and the security concerns that India has over the proposed railway project. Similar economic projects have been launched in India's neighbors in the last few years. E.g. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which runs through Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, and the port of Hambantota, which is in Sri Lanka, have also created misunderstandings in India-China relations, and exacerbated already complex security issues.
Although these projects are in their infancy, it is important for India to plan to respond to them. At the grassroots level, it would be appropriate for India to tighten its security arrangements to effectively deal with the potential threat posed by China on the Myanmar border.
The second point is that the infrastructure projects in the states of Northeast India need to be completed expeditiously. Which will enable India to rapidly consolidate its military. If the situation arises, the army may face many unforeseen crises. The third point is that India needs to keep an eye on what is happening using its space system. So that India does not have to face unforeseen events. Finally, the fourth, most important point is that India should take the initiative to develop Myanmar's infrastructure sector.
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