As soon as the US turns its back on Syria, there will be a flurry of Kurdish, Turkish people. This is a review of the situation arising out of Trump's decision to withdraw troops.
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| Image by: https://unsplash.com/photos/aO9nGw9Cbk0 |
The decision by US President Donald Trump to withdraw his troops from Syria has drawn mixed reactions from around the world. Jim Mattis, the Trump administration's defense secretary, and Brett McGurk, the US special envoy to the international front set up to fight Islamic State, have both resigned. Although he said no, Trump's decision is to blame. French President Emmanuel Macron has called the Trump administration's decision "regrettable." Allies of the United States, which has rallied against terrorism, have also been criticized.
All these countries are forgetting that Trump had made a public statement in March 2018 regarding the withdrawal of US troops from Syria. At the time, Trump was persuaded by US allies and advisers in the Middle East, such as Saudi Arabia, that the Islamic State (ISIL) had not yet been decisively eliminated. That's why Trump set that decision aside for a while longer.
On the one hand, there is the cash of knowledgeable and allied countries that Trump has never adopted a coherent policy on the Syrian war. But on the other hand, Trump has never shown much confidence in resolving the Syrian crisis permanently.
This is confirmed by the fact that over the past few years, the United States does not seem to have taken much of a lead in shaping the political landscape in Syria, other than tearing it down. Of course, the US's hidden goal is to reduce Iran's dominance in the region, but the US is not keen to play a maneuver with Iran using Syria.
In a letter to colleagues, US Special Envoy Brett McGurk, in his resignation letter, made clear that Trump's decision had "completely confused" his allies. Most analysts believe that Trump's decision will give Iran a free run. Now, from Afghanistan directly to the Mediterranean Sea, there is room for Iran's Shia crescent to shine. Some say that there is an opportunity for Russia to dominate the region.
All these analysts have completely ignored the fact that, as soon as the US turns its back, the Kurdish and Turkish people will be left in Syria. Whether everyone else will be in the role of just watching or not, they will have to get out of here in the future.
See in the next map which region is under the control of whom in Syria today….
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| Image courtesy: Aljazeera News Network |
Autonomous Kurdish people in Syria have gathered under the banner of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). A key player in this is the People's Protection Units (YPG), a group working to protect the Kurdish people in northern Syria. It is an autonomous group in Syria affiliated with the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which has been fighting for the autonomy of the Kurdish people in Turkey since 1980. The PKK has been declared a terrorist organization by the Turkish Republic, the United States and the European Union. Although the YPG originated from the PKK, it has the support of the people of Washington. This is because both of them have been cooperating with each other to fight Islamic State ISIL, which is their common enemy.
The YPG now controls about a third of Syria's territory. They have seized control of the region during the past few years, fighting Islamic terrorist groups during the Syrian war. And the main thing is that this is a very useful resource region in Syria.
Even if current Syrian President Bashar al-Assad recaptures Idlib, the last major stronghold of the rebels, using force, Syria will have to rely on YPG-dominated territory to meet its grain and fuel needs to become a sovereign state.
Of course, several delegations from the YPG have traveled to Damascus to reconcile the post-war power equations and get the Assad government to recognize its partial autonomy. But all this is likely to take a long time and yet the solution will be temporary. Because Assad is in no hurry to make any such agreement with the Kurdish autonomists.
Once the US turns its back, all these groups are likely to get into trouble. This is because there is a strong fear of military aggression from Turkey on the Kurdish-dominated territories in northern Syria. The YPG wants an agreement with the Assad government before then. So many hope that a mutual agreement will be reached between the Kurdish autonomists and the Assad government, no matter how late.
Yet given the concentrated population of Kurdish people on both the Turkish and Syrian borders, it is good to imagine what might happen next. Turkey does not like the PKK's experiment of an autonomous Kurdistan through the YPG in the Syrian region, which is close to its border. Last February, Turkish troops stormed the Kurdish autonomous city of Afrin in northwestern Syria, seizing the province, and the United States and Russia backed Turkey. Fear of a repeat of this incident has plagued Kurdish autonomists.
Tensions between the Turks and the Kurds erupted in the Syrian city of Manjib when news broke that the United States was withdrawing troops from Syria. Although Assad's mediation has eased tensions, there is no prospect of a lasting solution to the conflict. As president of Syria, Assad is standing outside the circle watching the battle for supremacy, and the Kurds and Turks, holding their respective borders, continue to wage a bloody war for years.
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