Geopolitical Equations in Central Asia

The first article in a series describing the political situation in the Central Asian region, which is of international importance in terms of strategy and resources.

Photo (https://unsplash.com/photos/le09J8guzR4)

Beyond the northwestern border of the Indian subcontinent, the region of Central Asia bordering Afghanistan. The province begins when the Chinchola of Afghanistan crosses the 'Wakhan Corridor' north of Kashmir. In fact, India and Central Asia have had political, economic and cultural ties since time immemorial. But the partition of India and the creation of Pakistan in the post-independence period ended our direct connectivity with the region; Which also affected our relationships. During the Soviet era, our contact with Central Asia came mainly through Moscow. But in the last few years, India has started to set foot in the region again. That is why while studying India's foreign policy, it is inevitable to get to know this very beautiful, exciting and multi-colored region that is close to us!

The five countries that became independent after the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, are collectively referred to as 'Central Asia'. It is a very important region politically, economically and strategically. As the name suggests, it is located in the middle and strategic location of the Asian continent, with Russia to the north, China to the east, Afghanistan to the south, and Iran to the southwest. In a sense, Central Asia is a link between the various regions of Asia and Europe.

Although geographically Central Asia is entirely 'landlocked', the region has two huge groundwater reservoirs, the strategically important Caspian Sea and the ecologically fragile Aral Sea. Natural and mineral resources are abundant here; It includes oil, natural gas, uranium, gold, silver, copper, tin. Most of Central Asia is also conducive to agriculture due to its abundant water resources and fertile land. The region is a leader in cotton production in particular.

The total area of ​​Central Asia is more than 40 lakh sq km; In which various physical features like mountains, plateaus, deserts, fertile valleys of rivers can be seen. In fact, five countries can be classified according to physical diversity; Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are predominantly mountainous countries; Kazakhstan has vast grasslands, while most of Turkmenistan is desert. Although the fertile valleys of the Sirdarya and Amudarya rivers, which originate in the mountains, originate mainly in Uzbekistan, they are the lifeline of the entire region. These geographical factors have a profound effect on the culture here.

Central Asia has a rich history of thousands of years. Being a central place, this region has experienced the movement of people, objects and thoughts since ancient times. The ancient trade route (which later became known as the Silk Road, connecting India and China on the one hand and Europe on the other) passed through this area. Along with the exchange of silk garments, spices, ornaments, gems, perfumes, and the like, there was an exchange of ideas. The province, which has experienced many invasions, regimes and human migrations to this day, has embraced many people, ideas and cultures. Central Asia, influenced by Western and Eastern cultures, developed a unique culture of its own.

For thousands of years, Indian culture has been influenced by Central Asian culture. In ancient times, the 'Uttarapath', connecting India and Central Asia, ran directly from Pataliputra, Varanasi to Kabul, Balkh, Samarkand and Bukhara. From here, Indian high-end goods were exported to Central Asia, West Asia, and Europe. In cities like Samarkand-Bukhara, there was a free flow of Indian traders, intermediaries and moneylenders. Apart from this, scholars, philosophers, religious leaders and travelers also spread their culture, ideas, knowledge and art in Central Asia. During Kanishka's reign, the entire province was under a single political umbrella, during which time Buddhism spread to Central Asia. From there it spread to China and East Asia. Not only that, but Indian mathematics, astronomy and medicine had a profound effect on Central Asian scholars.

Central Asia, formerly dominated by the Persian language and the Zoroastrian religion, flourished with trade and economic prosperity, as did other languages, religions, and cultures. In the eighth century, the Arabs invaded Central Asia, and brought Islam here. Later, Islam spread throughout the region. Meanwhile, large numbers of Turks from the north and east came to the area and settled there. Central Asia gave the world many philosophers, thinkers and scholars. During the reign of Timur, cities like Samarkand and Bukhara became famous as centers of learning and art. Later, his descendant Babur invaded India and established Mughal rule here.

In the second half of the 19th century, the whole of Central Asia was conquered by the Russian Tsar. The ryots were being strangled by the imperialist policies of the Tsar. As a result of the changing global economy, farmers in the region were forced to grow cotton. After the Bolshevik Revolution of 1917, a communist system was established in Russia; Which eventually included all the provinces of the Tsarist Empire. Lenin decided to create a province based on 'nationality' in order to adjust the administrative structure of the Soviet Union. As a result, five "republics" were created in Central Asia: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. On this occasion, for the first time, the Central Asian region was divided into nationalities and certain boundaries. These artificially drawn boundaries further created many new problems. During the Soviet era, a great deal of infrastructure was developed.

The Soviet dollar began to depreciate in the late 1980's; Which was largely due to the nationalist wave in the constituent states. But it was the initiative of the European republics. The Central Asian republics, however, were reluctant to withdraw from the Soviet system. Financial dependence on Moscow was the main reason behind it. It would not be an exaggeration to say that the decision to dissolve the Soviet Union was imposed on them. These countries were unexpectedly granted independence without any kind of freedom struggle or movement. And new members were recruited into the global 'nation-state' system.

In the post-independence period, these countries overcame many political, economic and social problems and started building new ones. He embraced a democratic state system and an open economy, abandoning the old 'Soviet-centric' identity and socialist ideology. But in reality, the transition was not easy. New constitutions were written in each country with provisions for democratic institutions. All Central Asian countries at the time adopted presidential democracy (after the 2010 revolution, Kyrgyzstan adopted a new system of parliament with a new constitution). Regular elections also began. But in all these countries, only the old communist leaders became presidents; And they kept getting elected again and again. The power of the country remained largely in their hands.

Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan saw a change of government in 2006 and 2016, respectively, following the death of the then president. Yet even these two countries have experienced only two presidents each so far. In Kazakhstan and Tajikistan, the old leaders are still in power. The only exception to this is Kyrgyzstan, where there have been two political revolutions, and a total of five revolutions. But even today, the country is going through tremendous political instability. Of course, this does not mean that the experiment of democracy in Central Asia has failed. It takes decades, sometimes even centuries, for a democratic system to take root. Only 28 years have passed since these countries became independent; And the progress they have made is significant.

The leadership of these countries also had to face the challenge of nation building after independence. It was necessary to create a sense of belonging in the minds of the citizens about the country and the new system of government. Also, these newborn nations needed symbolic tools to create their own identity. On the other hand, the importance of the old communist ideology was lost and a new ideology was needed. Leaders used nationalism to fill this double void. Linguistic, religious, cultural and historical symbols were widely used by all these five countries to awaken their national identities. Some of these extremist nationalist policies have created a sense of unity among the citizens. But on the other hand, because of this, some communities in the country also got the 'distance' that we are not a part of nation-building in this country. Speaking different languages ​​in all Central Asian countries,

Along with political change, these countries also faced economic and social problems. Each of the Central Asian countries had people who spoke four other languages ​​because of the artificial borders drawn in Soviet times; In the border provinces, the villages spoke the languages ​​of the neighboring nations. Also, railways and roads connecting cities in Central Asia passed through each other's territory. In many places productive regions, factories and markets were also within each other's borders. As long as the Soviet Union was united, the movement of people and goods across the border was very easy. However, these internal boundaries were transformed into international borders in 1991, and new problems arose.

The Soviet economy suddenly collapsed, businesses came to a standstill, and many well-educated and safe workers from Russia returned home. That is why new governments have embraced an open economy. But the struggle to join the global economy continued. Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan have been able to sustain their natural energy resources. However, the situation worsened in mountainous, remote and economically backward Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. Even today, workers from these two countries go to Russia and send money home, which accounts for about 50 percent of the national income.

In addition to economic and social problems, Central Asia has faced significant security challenges over the past three decades. The worst situation was in Tajikistan, where the Civil War broke out immediately after independence (1992-97). On the one hand, the newly formed government, which was filled with Soviet-era leaders, and on the other, the civil war between the Liberals and the Islamic fundamentalists, lasted nearly five years, in which the original poor backward country was still reeling. Uzbekistan is also plagued by separatism and terrorism. But the hardline government of then-President Karimov thwarted such efforts. In Kyrgyzstan, on the other hand, there was political instability. In addition to the two bloody revolutions, in 2010 there was a fierce ethnic conflict between the Kyrgyz and Uzbek communities in southern Kyrgyzstan. Due to the still uncertain boundaries, security threats from one country to another spread easily.

Even today, Central Asian countries face challenges such as terrorism, Islamic extremism and separatism. Afghanistan and Pakistan's war-torn province of Fata are close by, allowing terrorists from Central Asia to come and go. Bitter-minded religious literature from countries like Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, and today's 'propaganda' through the internet, is fueling terrorism in Central Asia. At present, a large number of young people are being recruited into the Islamic State (ISIS). According to various surveys, the number is around 2000-4000. Considering the entire pre-Soviet province, this number doubles. The involvement of Central Asian terrorists in several terrorist attacks around the world last year is a wake-up call.

In any case, the systems of Central Asian countries are capable of meeting these security challenges. Today, the total population of the region is around 7 million households; Of those, 3.2 million live in Uzbekistan alone. Naki Nau of the government agencies are coming here to provide such facilities to supplement such a large population. Even today, they need outside help in areas such as education and health. Countries like India are constantly helping them in this field. International cooperation is also important in the field of defense.

Forgetting the political differences of the early days, now these five countries seem to be coming together. Uzbekistan has taken the lead in this process over the past two years. Under Karimov, Uzbekistan had severed ties with all Central Asian countries. But Mirziyoyev, who came to power after his death, has begun to improve. It is welcome that all the Central Asian Heads of State came together in Astana in March 2018, despite numerous bilateral visits. At the same time, all five countries are increasingly cooperating with regional powers such as Russia, China, Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan and India. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) has many of these countries, so it is emerging as an important multinational body. Russia's defense partnership in Central Asia and China's growing economic presence under the name of 'Belt and Road Initiative' are the focus of world attention.

All these efforts seem to be succeeding in connecting the 'landlocked' Central Asia to the global market. Of course, not only the exchange of goods and services, but also culturally and emotionally, if all these countries come closer, then this effort will be a real thing. And Central Asia will shine on a world map again!

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