Looking at the developments in Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and the Maldives, India's situation in South Asia is much safer and stronger this year than last.
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After 2018, India's situation in South Asia at the beginning of 2019 has become much safer and stronger than it was at the beginning of last year. In 2018, there was a flurry of news that 'India has lost its place in South Asia'. Sheikh Hasina has returned to power in Bangladesh on New Year's Eve, the Sri Lankan judiciary has thwarted Mahinda Rajapaksa's attempts to reach the center of the country's politics behind the scenes, and the country's turmoil has eased following Ibrahim Soli's victory in the Maldives.
But this does not mean that the strategic situation in India's neighbors will not be adverse again. But in general, the discussion between India and its neighbors is in the context of recent events. As India's interests in neighboring nations diminished, so did India's class of policymakers. On the contrary, he is very enthusiastic about the situation on India's side. The fact of the matter is that India has good relations with its neighbors and both Delhi and its neighbors are aware of this. So no matter how many tensions and differences arise between them, the geographical importance of India cannot be ignored.
In Bangladesh, Sheikh Hasina will not have power forever. Even today, if they pursue a policy of dictatorship without considering the country's democracy, it could have a devastating effect on India. Even if the governments of India and the Awami League share the same views on Bangladesh, it is up to Delhi to decide whether to maintain relations with other political partners in Bangladesh. The two countries think in parallel on issues like terrorism, Muslim fundamentalism, border control, water management. Therefore, the relationship between these two countries should go beyond the individual level and grow in an institutional and definite direction.
Similarly, given the situation in the Maldives, India needs to go beyond Soli and Nasheed and strengthen its ties with different political currents. Relations between the Maldives and India soured in February 2018 when President Abdulla Yameen declared a state of emergency. Some Indian experts have interpreted this to mean that India has lost directly to the Maldives. The government of President Abdullah Yameen ordered the return of two naval helicopters donated by India, a policy that was withdrawn after Yameen's defeat. The shocking defeat of Yameen and the victory of Mohammed Soli have opened the door to new reciprocal investments for India, but that does not mean that these political changes will end all the challenges facing India.
Although Rajapaksa has suffered a setback in Sri Lanka recently, he is gearing up to make a comeback. Although the current situation is a relief for India, India will have to come up with a policy on how to deal with the Rajapaksa. Although India has consistently raised the issue of the Tamil community displaced by the civil war in Sri Lanka, the Rajapaksa has not paid much attention to it. Similarly, India should always remember Rajapaksa's closeness to China. Despite all this, given Rajapaksa's tight grip on the country's politics, India will have to have a strategic relationship with him to solve its problems.
Given these close links in South Asia, India is an important partner for the smaller states. These small nations have always benefited from one another, away from China and India. Even if his strategy is natural, he will never deny the importance of India.
Neighboring nations like Delhi are aware of India's importance in South Asia. Yet policy makers in Delhi still do not view every move of these nations from this point of view.
China's presence in South Asia is old, but if there is one thing that has definitely changed in the case of India, it is New Delhi's desire to expand its partnership with these nations and create such an identity. This is what India is showing the world that it is ready to face this situation. Given the person-centered political situation in South Asia, India and China are choosing their allies and have a clear idea of the consequences.
Therefore, in the future, sometimes India will dominate in the South Asian region and sometimes China. But overall, it will not make much difference to the basic structure of the geopolitical situation in South Asia.
Another shift in India's approach is the presentation of a new strategic plan to divert attention from the Western front to the Bay of Bengal. Even if it comes at a high cost, if implemented effectively, it will open up many opportunities for India. This will enable India to consider such broad strategic ideas for its neighbors from East to South-East Asia. While India's role in the Indo-Pacific focuses on foreign investment, such ideas will broaden India's horizons in such a wide geo-political arena.
Whatever the outcome of India's Lok Sabha elections, the international script for 2019 will depend on India's relations with its neighbors and India's investment in those countries. The lessons learned in 2018 will be very important for writing the next part of this story.
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