The complexities of political relations between China and Taiwan, a world power, are becoming increasingly complex.
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In recent times, China has rapidly emerged as an economic and military superpower. The biggest impact has been on China's stance on Taiwan. The policy of 'One China' (Unified China) was adopted by China itself and it started the business of pressuring Taiwan to accept it. China considers Taiwan its own but fragmented province. But in Taiwan, democracy is well established. Thus, the interrelationship between the two has created extraordinary complications. Since assuming the presidency, Xi has pursued a very strict policy on the Taiwan issue.
The situation in Taiwan is also volatile. Sometimes the Kuomintang party, which has taken on the role of reuniting with China, has the upper hand, and sometimes the pro-independence Democratic People's Party. Therefore, even in Beijing, there is an atmosphere of confusion as to exactly what the Taiwan question should be. In addition, Tsai Ing-wen was elected President of Taiwan, refusing to pursue Sino-Taiwanese relations following a 1992 agreement, and the situation soured.
News of the 19th Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC) gives a general idea of China's policy towards Taiwan under Xi Jinping. According to these sources, China seems to be pursuing the two ambitions of "resurrection of the great Chinese nation" by 2050 and of establishing itself as a powerful socialist power. "We have the determination, the confidence and the ability to respond decisively to any separatist action by Taiwan," Xi said at the convention.
Over the past few years, China has used its growing economic power to reduce the number of countries that have diplomatic relations with Taiwan. Since 2016, this number has been increasing. El Salvador, Burkina Faso, Dominican Republic, Sao Tome and Principe, Gambia, Panama, etc., severed political ties with Taiwan and established it with China. Today, only 17 countries have diplomatic relations with Taiwan. The majority of these countries are poor in Central America or the Pacific. Not only that, China has forced a majority of countries to change the name of Taiwan to Chinese Taipei. In July 2018, India also succumbed to this pressure and Air India, the state-owned airline, started using the name Chinese Taipei instead of Taiwan. The United States also succumbed to this pressure, and American Airlines, Delta Airlines, Airlines in the United States, such as United Airlines, are now referred to as Chinese Taipei. All of this shows that China's dominance in international politics is growing.
It seems that China will not give any concessions to Taiwan under Xi's rule. On January 1, 1979, the Chinese National People's Congress issued a message to Taiwan. It was called 'Message to the Patriots in Taiwan'. January 1 marks the 40th anniversary of this incident. The message includes some important policies and principles aimed at bringing about unification in a peaceful way, and China still adheres to them. The message made clear that the Taiwan issue is an internal matter of China.
In addition, it includes guidelines / basics for the purpose of integration. This was reiterated by President Xi Jinping at a ceremony at The Great Hall of the People on January 2 to mark the 40th anniversary of this message. "Chinese citizens here and across the Chinese Strait, as well as around the world, must work together for the good of China. History is happening, we should walk with it. We must work together to bring about peaceful integration and to create a cordial atmosphere between the two parties. " This was stated by Shi at the meeting. "Taiwan is an important and fundamental issue, and the only way to achieve it is through peaceful integration," he said.“The nation was weakened, chaotic, and Taiwan's problem arose; However, this problem will only end with the resurrection of the nation. ” , He added. No official peace agreement has yet been reached between China and Taiwan to end the standoff. Xi wants to bring Taiwan back under Chinese rule by 2050.
Addressing the gathering, Tsai said, "China needs to respect the sentiments of 2.3 million people about freedom and democracy. We need to find a way to resolve our differences in a peaceful and equal way. ” Four things are needed to improve relations between the two countries, which are on the other side of the Strait of China, she said. The "essentials" are: "China must recognize the existence of the Republic of China (Taiwan), respect the feelings of the 2.3 million Taiwanese people towards freedom and democracy, resolve their differences peacefully and equitably, and Sit down and discuss with an approved organization. ”
Tsai reiterated that the Taiwanese people are not attracted to the principle of "one country, two systems". Over the past 70 years, Taiwan has taken a completely different approach to development, both economically and politically. Therefore, it is almost impossible for the 2.3 million citizens of Taiwan to believe that a democratic system can be successfully implemented under the umbrella of the communist regime. By the way, the Taiwanese people are frustrated with the way this 'one country, two systems' has been implemented in Hong Kong. In Hong Kong, the Chinese government is cutting off the wings of the media, hammering at their freedom. These forms are on the rise under Xi's rule, the control over the media is getting stronger and stronger, and this is visible to the Taiwanese people. This is affecting their attitude towards the slogan 'One Country, Two Systems'.
China and Taiwan are well entangled in the crisis, and hopes for a final solution to the problem are fading. Today the economies of these two countries are very much intertwined. It should not be forgotten that Taiwan's investment is at the root of China's economic prosperity. Taiwan also faces the challenge of finding an alternative to the Chinese market or investment. Due to the strengthening economic ties over the years, the two countries are well-connected economically and have the potential to do much harm to each other. China, led by Xi, is unlikely to soften its stance on Taiwan.
If China becomes more and more aggressive, it is likely to upset the delicate balance between 'politics and economics' over the past four decades. Xi wants to fulfill his dream of a 'national revival', and the merger of Taiwan is an important and integral part of that dream. However, there is still no clarity on how this will be achieved. China has repeatedly stated that it is ready to use military force if necessary; Only time will tell whether that will really happen.
(Dr. Gunjan Singh is a scholar of China and international politics working as an assistant researcher at the Institute of Chinese Studies in Delhi.)
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