The political situation in Venezuela has deteriorated so much over the past few weeks that it is impossible to say for sure when the conflict will end.
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For the past few weeks, Venezuela has been in the throes of an unprecedented political upheaval. The situation has deteriorated so much that it is not possible to say for sure when this conflict will end. Juan Guado, speaker of Venezuela's national parliament and leader of the main opposition, announced last month that he would be head of Venezuela's interim presidency. Guado's announcement is the result of this struggle. Importantly, Guado has the support of many countries, such as the United States, the European Union, and Brazil. But in reality, incumbent President Nicolas Maduro is facing a major backlash from citizens. Of course, Russia, China and some other countries support Maduro. In a state of conflict, both groups are adamant about their respective roles.
The most important thing in all of this is that if US President Donald Trump tries to take any military action against Venezuela, he will not look back to cause bloodshed, Maduro has warned. The incident has been taken seriously by the Inter-American Human Rights Commission and the Organization of American States (OAS). Venezuelan officials have instructed Guado to take care of his safety. Maduro recently gave a warning to the United States in an interview with a Spanish news channel on February 3. Maduro said in a statement that US President Trump should respect each other and ensure that the Vietnam issue is not repeated.
Guado, who has attracted the attention of the world, has never before been such a popular leader in Venezuela. Considering Venezuela's political ideology, the political space there, in a sense, Guado is a political leader with a different style and ideology. In his speech, Guado mentioned human rights, decentralization of power centers, restructuring of the judiciary, and amnesty for the military if it relinquished its current monarchy. These are the points in Guado's speech that explain the differences between the views and ideologies of Guado and his predecessor, Hugo Chavez. Chavez wanted to centralize power and retain power in order to maintain his power for a long time.
Considering why the ongoing discontent in Venezuela has erupted, Venezuela's crisis-ridden economy seems to have largely contributed to the opposition to President Maduro and his political policies. In the 1970's, Venezuela was on its way to becoming the richest country in Latin America. Despite its shortcomings, democracy was on the rise. Compared to other Latin American countries, Venezuela had better health care, education, and infrastructure.
Chavez, a populist, anti-imperialist, was one of the most popular leaders in Latin America. Venezuela had a few albels, at the same time Chavez emerged. After the rise of Chavez, however, democratic institutions in Venezuela began to crumble, with decentralized centers of power changing and becoming more and more centralized. Leadership with unlimited authority also led to self-appointed appointments rather than merit. All of this had a negative effect on Venezuela's movement. This created an opportunity for private businesses to dominate. Chavez began seizing the assets of foreign companies in various fields.
Chavez pursued a policy that would allow the government to control the country's oil reserves. That being said, Venezuela has the largest oil reserves in the world. Going beyond that, Chवेvez severed ties with the United States and established relations with countries such as Cuba, Iran, and Belarus, which have a monopoly power. One of the objectives of Chavez's foreign policy was to reduce US influence over Latin American countries. For that, first Chavez and then Maduro focused on further enhancing Venezuela's relations with Russia and China. It is because of this policy that China and Russia are seen today as important supporters of the current government.
On the economic front, however, Venezuela has fallen victim to the policies of countries such as China, Cuba and Belarus. Venezuela was forced to deal with these countries not as a barter exchange but as an exchange of goods and services. As a result, Venezuela had to empty its oil reserves for these countries in order to dominate the petroleum and infrastructure sectors. In other words, Venezuela had begun to vehemently oppose the policies of countries that promote liberal and free economies.
Crude oil has always been Venezuela's preferred export product, and an important source of income. Even in the 1970's, Venezuela's economy struggled to break its dependence on crude oil exports. This simply means that the state of the Venezuelan economy depended on the state of the international oil market. Maduro took over in 2013 after the death of Hugo Chavez. Then in 2014, crude oil prices plummeted and Venezuela's economy began to falter, almost to the point of stagnation. Due to the decline in oil revenues, the government began to cut spending on public schemes. Not only that, they had to take measures to devalue their currency.
After Maduro took office in 2013, his economy shrank by 50 per cent. Such a downturn in the economy naturally created a serious problem of unemployment and emigration. Numerous ordinary citizens of Venezuela began to move to other Latin American countries in order to escape the serious economic problems in their own country. Seriously, there was a severe shortage of food throughout the country, resulting in an average weight loss of 11 kg for 64% of Venezuelans. 61% of the Venezuelans massses still lives below the prominent poverty line. Inflation, on the other hand, reached alarming levels.
There are serious allegations against the present government of negligent handling of important institutions of the country. He is accused of giving preference to those who are loyal to the authorities rather than merit in appointments to such institutions. In order to avoid possible action, this government gave important positions to military officers, and made the army a handmaiden. Maduro handed over the leadership of Petrios de Venezuela, SA (PDVSA), the country's largest oil producer, to National Security Officer Major General Manuel Quavedo. The country's food supply system is also under the control of Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino. Maduro's bold and equally shocking decision was to declare Venezuela's national parliament unconstitutional. Many are of the opinion that there were big irregularities in the elections there as well.
On January 23 this year, Juan Guado declared himself the interim president of Venezuela, as dissent and agitation intensified in Venezuela. Of course, Maduro is still in office, despite the opposition's great success in creating public and international opinion against the ruling party. Maduro's grip on the military leadership, the split in the opposition, and at the same time the international support for countries like Russia, China and Cuba are the main reasons behind it.
The role of Russia and China
Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov responded immediately after the United States approved Guado as Venezuela's interim president. He says the US recognition of Guado is a conspiracy. Russia has said such interference violates international law.
Given Russia's close ties to the current regime, their strong support for the regime was to be expected. In addition, last year, Russia sent two T-shirts to Venezuela. U.S. -160 bombers were also sent. Importantly, Russia has also supplied Venezuela with military equipment such as AK-104 lethal rifles and T-90 tanks. China, on the other hand, has been a big supporter of Venezuela. In fact, at present, China's economy is going through some crisis. It is worth noting that in 2017, when discontent erupted against President Maduro, China provided the most economic assistance to Venezuela.
China has provided more than ६० 60 billion in aid to Venezuela and has made significant investments in Venezuela's oil sector. China's investment in the Junin-4 oil field, valued at पूर्ण 26 billion in Venezuela's Orinko oil field, is one of the major investments made by China in Venezuela. Venezuela had recently sent its engineers to China for technical training. China has also helped Venezuela become a self-sufficient oil producer. China is also accepting crude oil instead of currency as a repayment of its debt to Venezuela. On the other hand, Venezuela sees China as an important strategic partner for US influence over Latin American countries. Of course, because of this, on the one hand, pressure is mounting against Maduro's regime, on the other. China has announced its support for the Maduro government. China says it supports defending Venezuela's sovereignty.
Cuba, another country that supports Maduro, is in fact a staunch opponent of the United States. In fact, Maduro and his predecessor, Chavez, were heavily influenced by Cuba's anti-American policies, and they sought to implement those policies in their own country.
Maduro is, in fact, carrying on Ch चाvez's legacy. He has proved this by appointing people in his administration who have received training in the Cuban government, who are influenced by Cuban policies, who do not believe in exchanging discussions in the administrative system. This government has prioritized closer ties with Cuba. Venezuela's greatest need right now is to break the political climate of real monarchy, control corruption, and take appropriate measures for economic reform. However, the possibility of some steps being taken by the current Cuban-influenced government is fading.
The role of India
As far as India is concerned, from India's foreign policy point of view, Venezuela is not as important to us as Latin America. But there is some trade between the two in the field of energy, and relations have been established in that regard. However, the Prime Minister of India did not attend the 2016 NAM conference in Venezuela. It certainly shows the importance of Naam in India's foreign policy. India has maintained a neutral stance on the current contentious situation in Venezuela. Reacting to this, a spokesperson for the Indian Ministry of External Affairs said that the Venezuelan citizens should resolve the political dispute through discussion, without encouraging violence.
The United States currently has restrictions on trading with Venezuela's state-owned petrol and gas company, PDVSA. In a sense, this is an opportunity for India. Taking advantage of this opportunity, Indian oil companies can buy crude oil from Venezuela at cheaper rates. Importantly, India is currently the third largest consumer of crude oil for Venezuela.
India's recent economic deal with Venezuela was in Indian rupees, in the wake of US sanctions on Venezuelan authorities. With all this happening, it remains to be seen whether India will take advantage of this opportunity to buy crude oil from Venezuela at cheaper rates. Of course, in doing so, there is a risk of US sanctions being imposed on India as well. Because even before this, when India invested in the development of energy sector and ports in Iran, the US had imposed such sanctions on India.
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