China’s domestic debates shed light on the issues behind the LAC crisis and also teach India a lesson in recognising and taking advantage of its growing strategic value for China.
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Two years have passed since the deadly Galvan Valley conflict of June 2020, but some elements of the crisis remain a mystery. Why did China choose to violate existing agreements, disturb peace and stability on the border? Why has the progress in bilateral relations been reversed in the last 45 years? Some say it was China's reaction to India's revocation of the special semi-autonomous status of Jammu and Kashmir in 2019. Others see the race for infrastructure weapons on the Line of Actual Control (LAC) as an immediate trigger. Others still believe that fierce power struggles between China and the United States have led to the deterioration of Sino-Indian relations. Against this backdrop, surveys of China's internal debates and discussions about India in the years before and after the Galvan clashes provide important indications.
Initially, it is important to understand that India is simultaneously a country characterized in all four areas of China's strategic outlook such as major power diplomacy, neighboring diplomacy, developing country diplomacy and multilateral diplomacy (the basic framework of Chinese political practice). A careful analysis of the Chinese language literature reveals that the LAC crisis is a manifestation of the intense conflict between China’s major power diplomacy and neighboring diplomacy against India. In a paper recently published by the Stimson Center, I pointed out how, as part of its major power diplomacy, China sought India's cooperation in defending US policy.
A careful analysis of the Chinese language literature reveals that the LAC crisis is a manifestation of the intense conflict between China’s major power diplomacy and neighboring diplomacy against India.
In the Chinese assessment, India, which is not a friend of the US, is the “major change” that determines the success or failure of the US Indo-Pacific strategy and, therefore, is important for Chinese interests. At the same time, Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) - which is China’s own version of the Indo-Pacific, aims to connect China-led economies in the Pacific and Indian Oceans and open up a stable, secure and economically viable Indian. Getting out of the ocean, overcoming the dilemma of Malacca - depends heavily on India. Chinese scholars often underscore the importance of India's support, cooperation and entry into the large-scale Indian market for the successful and cost-effective implementation of China's BRI in South Asia. Moreover, in order to maintain the stability of China's overall security environment,
But, the exact opposite of its major power strategy, which brings it closer
Sino-Indian cooperation, China's neighborhood strategy is to get a "tremendous power advantage" in Asia, which requires India to check and balance. Why? Because China believes that India is the only country, militarily and geographically, to disrupt China's energy lifeline in the Indian Ocean, pose a direct threat to China's troubled western border, replace it in global supply chains, and compete in various international organizations. . So, whether it is the resolution of the border dispute, the issue of Pakistan or the issue of India's access to important global forums, China opposes all this, as it is concerned that any settlement will further strengthen India's power and China will lose its valuable local advantages. "India got these concessions from China, But what if you decide to cooperate with the United States anyway? ” Ye Helen.
This explains why New Delhi has been actively seen in the past few years in cases involving Beijing, the US-China competition and the BRI, but on the other hand, New Delhi in particular is upset as “issue-based diplomacy /”. The problem is diplomacy ”towards China. India's unwillingness to resolve the border dispute, public opposition to the BRI, tough stance against Pakistan, strong response to the 2017 Doklam protests and its growing ties with Washington have angered the Chinese, who were seen as trying to resolve the issue. Local benefits of Beijing.
Since the beginning of 2020, when the epidemic has brought China under unprecedented international pressure, Chinese strategists have accused India of taking advantage of intense Sino-US hostility to drive its own rise. The discussion in Beijing was that the US rejection of China globally has diminished China's power advantage and its psychological advantage over India, New Delhi has never been before and China's approach to cooperation is not beneficial to India, but geopolitical. To India.
India's unwillingness to resolve the border dispute, public opposition to the BRI, tough stance against Pakistan, strong response to the 2017 Doklam protests and its growing ties with Washington have angered the Chinese, who were seen as trying to resolve the issue.
The conflict began in 2020 against the backdrop of this brainstorming of China's strategic thinking. From Beijing's point of view, destabilizing the border, creating new flashpoints on the LAC (avoiding full-scale conflict) to bring India to the table, to consider China's interest, at no real cost, seemed the most costly way. Expenditure scattered bilateral relations, negative public sentiment, and its impact on China's overall South Asia and Indian Ocean policy were seen as worrisome, but manageable through active diplomacy, at least in part from parts of the Chinese strategic community.
India should realise that it has an important role to play in China's foreign policy as well as in future development strategies (BRI / Western Development Strategy / Two Ocean Strategy). As long as India views its relations with Beijing only from the point of view of power differences between the two countries, it will continue to see itself in an unfavorable position. In order to shape Beijing's behavior and reap substantial benefits from it, it is better for India to adapt to its growing strategic value for China and take better advantage of it
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