Maldives: Ibrahim Mohamed Solih poses a double Challenge to India

Ibrahim Mohamed Solih decision to end next year's betting and prepare for next year's elections has created a double challenge for India.

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Maldives President Ibrahim Solih has put an end to last year's betting and put on his hat for a second term in next year's elections. Making significant changes in roles in two months, the Speaker of Parliament and head of the ruling MDP, Mohammad Nasheed, tweeted, ‘Now is not the time to prioritize personal aspirations, step up for the presidency’. Ahead of the party’s presidential election last month, in which Team Solih’s candidate and Economic Affairs Minister Fayyaz Ismail won against Nasheed’s Shibir followers, Nasheed reiterated that he had planned to get an MDP candidacy for the presidential election but Solih said it was. There is no time for them to discuss partisan politics when the focus should be on post-Covid-19 economic reforms.

Solih announced his decision at a non-recurring press conference in the capital, Male. He hinted that if the MDP nominates him, he will be the candidate of the ruling alliance. He clarified that the MDP Congress, which will hold a meeting in mid-August, will decide whether to hold a preliminary to select a presidential candidate. As recalled, Solih Camp won the party's general council election in December for a congressional vote.

The MDP Congress is important because while Nasheed was in office in 2008-12, according to an amendment to the party's constitution, Solih may be called upon to decide whether he will have to face a primary election or be automatically re-nominated. Notably, the party has since called for proposals to implement new amendments, which could end the dilemma in the explanation of this rule. Still, it would be up to the General Assembly to vote on such amendments. Technically, the General Assembly also has to decide when to hold a party congress-and an agenda as well.

Party Congress is important for another reason. The date of the National Convention for 'Registered Members' was postponed five times from a fortnight to decide which party they belonged to. This came after the Election Commission decided to verify the membership of the political party to remove the duplication and impose a fine of MVR 10,000 for each fraudulent entry.

The MDP always claimed 94,000 members, while the EC record shows only 54,000. The turnout in the highly contested presidential election was less than half. The PPM claimed that the EC in-charge of the party, which had registered 391 fake members, was trying to "steal the presidential election" for the ruling coalition. EC is challenged if cross-verification of fingerprints on individual forms is done before reaching a conclusion.

Turn trick?

Solih's announcement to get a second term was no longer expected. As a result, it is being seen as a possible attempt by two officials of the ruling BJP in neighboring India to divert the country's attention by making derogatory remarks against the Prophet Mohammad. The case has shaken the Islamic world.

Most political parties in the Maldives, including allies in the MDP government, have protested the statement of the BJP leader, who has been expelled from the party. The MDP itself preferred not to comment directly on this. The government statement did not name names, criticized and condemned the condemnation in general terms, and welcomed the Indian government's outrageous criticism. The pro-Yamin media outlet described the Solih government’s response as ‘sharp’.

As a result, it is being seen as a possible attempt by two officials of the ruling BJP in neighboring India to divert the country's attention by making derogatory remarks against the Prophet Mohammad.

Notably, Parliament, in the absence of allies and a large number of MDP members, rejected the state of emergency proposal brought by the opposition PPM-PNC alliance on such a 33-10 Indian dispute. Later, the MDP parliamentary group claimed that it would ‘not allow Islam to be used as a political weapon’. The religion-centric Adhalath Party (AP) condemned the BJP leaders' remarks, while party leader Imran Abdullah, who is also the home minister, claimed it was not for them to state the government's position on the issue.

It is in this context that Solih has reiterated his support for the term for the second time, with the support of his current ally, the AP, billionaire-businessman Gasim Ibrahim's Jumhuri Party and former President Abdul Gayoom's Maumoon Reform Movement (MRM). Earlier, the Solih-Nasheed split also relied on the wisdom of continuing with the MDP’s alliance. When the party can continue without the support of any coalition in Parliament, Nasheed asked the MDP to come out of the ‘sinking government’, which has 65 MPs out of a total of 87.

Expansion of 'India Out'

The Islam-centric controversy in India erupted when the opposition PPM-PNC merger sought to expand the scope and reach of their inappropriate ‘India Out’ campaign, which was banned by the government by presidential order. After Yameen personally warned the armed forces and police that they would have to face the music when we return to power, his team has called for details of "Indian influence" on the country's Election Commission (EC).

Ahead of the 2013 presidential election, which he won against Nasheed in a controversial situation, Yameen alleged that the EC had hired an Indian public sector IT team to manipulate the results against him. His 'India Out' campaign itself focuses on the belief that New Delhi, as a strong neighbor in South Asia, aims to defeat them, though he has never stated the reasons for such suspicions.

Yameen's 'India Out' campaign itself focuses on the belief that as a strong neighbor in South Asia, New Delhi will aim to defeat them, although they have never stated the reasons for such suspicions.

Confusing his position between India Out and India Military Out, Yameen also reiterated that the government had "falsified" the agreement with India and claimed that instead of presenting a copy of the actual agreement on the Uthuru Thila Falhu (UTF) defense agreement, Parliament The National Security Committee, or ‘241 Committee’, the Ministry of Defense made only one presentation before the MDP-majority panel. Inside Parliament, Speaker Nasheed observed that ‘the loss of freedom is not even on the horizon’ and that the nation’s ‘sovereignty is being lost’ (allegedly for India) was thrown out of the opposition’s demand for discussion.

Coincidentally, the lower court in Male has quashed the directive of the police to confiscate the materials of the 'India Out' campaign from Yamin's residence and party office on the basis of a presidential order passed in April. In Parliament, Speaker Nasheed had criticized the High Court's verdict. It is not clear whether the government intends to challenge the High Court order in the Supreme Court.

Build a bridge

Pointing to one, Yamin said elsewhere that there was no need to build bridges in the country, although others did. The 500 500 million Thilamale Sea Bridge is the largest single project in the country. Upon completion, the size of the China-funded cinema bridge connecting the capital Malशी with the airport-island Hulhule, built during Yamin's presidency, will be reduced.

Without naming the bridge or other projects, Speaker Nasheed told parliament that the government should not invest too much in infrastructure (until the economy is fully stabilized after Kovid). President Solih has since made it clear that he will not borrow any more to complete ongoing projects, although Eva Abdullah, a deputy speaker at the Nasheed camp, has asked for details of existing foreign exchange reserves so that the nation can repay up to US. 150 million foreign debt, due in the coming weeks.

The head of the Indian infrastructure sector, Afcons, in a detailed presentation to the local media, has set out how to meet the deadline for the three-phase Thilamale project, two of which are scheduled for next year and the last, November 2024. Another Indian company, TCIL, has been hired to build hospitals in four hospitals, another priority area of ​​the Solih government.

Bilateral problem

For India, the domestic politics of the Maldives is now a bipartisan issue. Yamin Camp’s ‘India Out’ campaign has not attracted much attention from the general public, including activists from other political parties and opposition parties, who have praised the overall support of Indians for decades, more so during and after the Kovid epidemic.

In the case of the most recent ‘Poffet controversy’, opinions can be divided on the official Indian response, both at the political and grassroots levels. It remains to be seen how Islamic nationalism will emerge from the United Kingdom and take shape in the nation that secured the independence of the Maldives in 1965.

The Maldives had a two-century protective treaty with the British, who began interfering in the internal affairs of the country, first allegedly supporting the Southern Subadiv Revolution (1959-62). Later, when the UK objected to Prime Minister Ibrahim Nasser’s government’s demand to widen the runway at Male Airport, the Maldives was sufficiently opposed to the British signing the Treaty of Independence to enable foreign tourists to arrive by large aircraft.

‘Islamic nationalism’ reached its second stage in the last decade when religious NGOs essentially led political protests, leading to the resignation of President Nasheed in February 2012. Yameen is said to be the brains behind the protests, which focused on construction GM another Indian infrastructure co-concession agreement by the GMR group and a succession led by President Waheed Hassan to ensure exit as ordered by the government.

Since the criminal court seized two money laundering cases against him, the verdicts were originally scheduled for this month, but one of them was rescheduled in September and with no clarity about the other, Yamin publicly embraced a new political path, claiming that ‘every government Landed ', as if it were a universal phenomenon. But since then, no political party or civil society leader has made an exception to his statement.

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