Even after nine months of reversal, Taliban administrators are struggling to consolidate their power in Afghanistan.
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The situation in Afghanistan can be gauged from the reshuffle of the PM's post and the news of a three-day meeting of caretaker Prime Minister Maulvi Hebatullah Akundzada in Kandahar in March. Although Islamic Emirate spokesman Jabilullah Mujahid has dismissed such speculations as untrue, many suspect a split within the Taliban.
The Taliban leadership has prioritized internal unity to reach out to other groups in Afghan society. Of course, this has also undermined the much-needed international recognition. Growing internal strife and external threats are making it harder for the Taliban to consolidate power in Afghanistan.
Due to the Taliban's failure to maintain control, the Taliban's relations with various groups have soured. As a result, the political and economic crisis in Afghanistan is showing signs of worsening.
Internal power struggle
The Taliban has faced increasing factionalism throughout its existence. The events of 2015 are a recent example. The death of Taliban founder Mullah Omar and his successor Mullah Akhtar Mansoor in 2013 triggered a political earthquake in Afghanistan. The result was an atmosphere conducive to new differences and internal strife, with serious repercussions. The Taliban has remained united to this day due to its loose organizational structure and greater autonomy given to militants fighting the Afghan security forces. Despite the diversity of membership over the past few years, the unity of the Taliban has remained intact.
Most of the time, the conflict within the Taliban is caused by differences between its political and military branches. The Haqqani network, a deep-rooted militant group led by the Taliban, is a loyal proxy for Pakistan's intelligence service. Therefore, many feared that Sirajuddin Haqqani would disrupt the movement with the support of Pakistan.
The power struggle between the Taliban and Haqqani leaders began within days of the formation of the government. The onslaught of credulity, which began with who tried the hardest to win, eventually culminated in a violent struggle. Mulla Abdul Gani Baradar went missing for several days after a verbal altercation with Minister Khalil-ur-Rehman Haqqani. The incident also sparked clashes among his supporters.
Due to ideological differences, the Taliban have so far adopted conflicting policies. The person who has played a role in the previous administration will not be given a place in the Taliban-led government, the radicals had already made clear.
Taliban militants have carried out assassinations of former officers and security personnel, Human Rights Watch said in a report. Many were also forcibly evicted from their homes by Taliban militants. In the next few days, former government officials, technicians and employees will be pardoned and welcomed by the administration.
The decision to allow girls to study up to the sixth grade has once again exposed the rift within the Taliban. The Taliban's decision not to allow girls' education was aimed at achieving the goal of pursuing policies that are in line with "Islamic law and the principles of Afghan culture."
Dissatisfaction is growing among the soldiers who are currently waiting for the spoils of war. Lacking any kind of experience and training in government, as well as those who rely on pure war, many have lost their identity and are stuck in a pit of despair. In October last year, the Taliban's central leadership set up a "clearing of rank commission" aimed at expelling Taliban fighters who commit crimes and violate the privacy of Afghan citizens. As a result, the complaints of these young people have increased.
In an effort to strengthen its power, the Taliban have made changes to Afghanistan's legal system. Therefore, the rights of the citizens have come under attack. Afghanistan has been deprived of the freedom of independent bar associations. Lawyers and officials should be "honest and loyal to the Islamic Emirate", should not have worked with the previous administration and should take part in "jihad", an order issued by Abdul Hakin Share on November 23, 2021. Those who do not comply with the rules will be replaced. As a result, very few non-Taliban individuals are eligible for these positions.
Challenges outside the country
In addition to domestic challenges, the Taliban faces external threats from terrorist organizations such as the anti-Taliban group, which includes former government leaders, the Islamic State-Khorasan (IS-K), and the National Resistance Front (NRF).
IS-K, which has been inactive since November last year, has launched an offensive in recent weeks to weaken the Afghan Taliban.
Islamic State-Khorasan ( ISK )
The high school bombing at Dasht-e-Barchi in the Hazara Shia-dominated area is a case in point. Six people were killed and 11 others, including children, were injured in the attack.
The Taliban insurgency has previously reduced IS-K's influence and manpower in the region. Therefore, the Afghan Taliban's rivals have no choice but to focus on operations in urban areas, such as the August 2021 deadly attack on Kabul airport. Despite its weakness, the IS-K leadership poses a major challenge to the Taliban. IS-K has re-emerged in Afghanistan due to the Taliban's limited ability to govern, the lack of pressure on multilateral terrorism and the growing humanitarian crisis.
In order to destabilize the Taliban, IS-K has exposed the Taliban's attitude towards the insurgency. The crackdown on locals supporting IS-K has further alienated locals from the Taliban.
In addition, IS-K has established ties with local militias in need of a jihadi alliance and has recruited troops from communities dissatisfied with the Taliban. In collaboration with groups such as Lashkar-e-Jhangvi and the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, IS-K's skills have expanded, and regional geographical knowledge has increased, reducing competition. Al-Muhajir has played a key role in reforming IS-Kate, strengthening its ability to resist the Afghan Taliban.
Al-Muhajir, the current deputy head of IS-K's Kabul network, was formerly part of the Taliban group affiliated with the Haqqani network. With the help of its wide network, IS-Ket is being recruited on a large scale. As he is the mastermind behind the attack on Kabul airport, his urban warfare skills have also proved useful to IS-K. Unless the Taliban succeeds in creating an effective mechanism to reconcile with the former Afghan army, it is certain that thousands of former Afghan security officials, frightened civilians, will be linked to IS.
National Resistance Front (NRF)
Several anti-Taliban elements in the US-trained armed forces and and former members of the Gani administration have fled to the Panjshir Valley, a stronghold of anti-Taliban resistance. Leaders of other opposition parties have also fled to the border state of Tajikistan in the past year.
The Panjshir Valley was once considered a stronghold of rebellion against Soviet occupation in the 1980s. In September 2021, the Taliban launched a major offensive in the Panjshir Valley. NRF leader Ahmed Masood had vowed to continue the fight despite the devastating damage to the movement in the attack. Former Afghan Vice President Amarullah Saleh is also involved in the movement. Former Afghan National Security and Defense Forces (ANSF) veterans have been recruited as combatants, insisting Masood is the only leader.
The NRF is not a serious challenge for the Taliban compared to IS-K. But they have announced a spring offensive. Tajikistan is the only country in Central Asia that openly opposes the Taliban and harbors anti-Afghan leaders. As a result, the NRF is facing a lack of political and material support from external forces to sustain a successful insurgent campaign.
The Next Step
The Taliban has emerged as a relatively unified group. So the chances of resistance are somewhat low. However, the transfer of dissidents to other groups, such as IS-K and the Haqqani Network, has caused great concern.
Earlier, the Taliban had effectively suppressed internal divisions and the group had emerged united. The difference is that the people of Afghanistan are no longer what they were two decades ago, but they have made great strides towards development as a society. With the growing need for international recognition in the wake of the catastrophic humanitarian and economic crisis, it is now more necessary to govern than to revolt. Maybe that's why the Taliban are facing more difficulties.
Instead of looking at the Taliban's conflict with IS-K, countries interested in combating IS-K should actively develop a joint security mechanism. In fact, it takes time to keep an eye on the people of Afghanistan.
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