If there ever erupts a war over oil, the oil prices will skyrocket in the international market within hours if not minutes, as a result not only the Middle East and Oil producing nations but the entire global economy will sink into complete collapse and will be thrown into the darkness for many decades to come.
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The political disagreement and confrontation between Islamic Republic of Iran and Kingdom of Saudi Arabia at the 74th session of the UN General Assembly in New York, as expected attracted everyone's attention. On the one hand, the United States is trying to choke Iran on the topic of nuclear weapons, while on the other hand, Iran is constantly trying to persuade its Middle Eastern allies, Jerusalem and Riyadh. The situation has been simmering consistently and steadily for the past few weeks, apparently for free decades.
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani targeted and criticised the United States for being a "supporter of terrorism"; thus in order to counter the claim, the US President Donald Trump cornered and slammed Iran as a "major country in the world that thrives on terrorism." However, earlier to this, there were rumours that Hassan Rouhani and Donald Trump were to meet. However US can't play double body, if such a meeting has to take place, the the economic sanctions imposed by the United States on the Iran must be discarded, Rouhani said; So Trump ran to his dear medium of communication, i.e. Twitter. The world already know Trumps' love for twitter, to spit-out his the everyday rant with with the rest of the world.
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Earlier, in September, Saudi Arabian oil refineries were under attack, located in the city of Abkak. As a result, discomforts in the region have already reached a tipping point. There are massive and huge oil fields in Abyssinia, these mines account for 5% of the world's oil production. The technically geared attacks reportedly involved the use of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and drones, as well as missiles, like someone had full proof plan to make a global news out of it. In the wake of this incident, Saudi Arabia now has priorities changed, starting most important, issues of national security. How did the aircraft manage to penetrate a very sensitive and tight security area like Abbeck, despite all the air safety measures in the country? For this reason, in 2018, Saudi Arabia was the world's largest importer of arms and military equipments.
Against this backdrop, the Abacus attacks directly threatened Saudi Arabia's main source of income, oil, their prime national interest. But now there seems to be a major void between the ability to buy weapons as part of foreign policy on the one hand and the concern regarding preparedness of the security forces to deal with such incidents on the other.
Despite the lethality and the use of advanced technology for materialising the attacks, Saudi Arabia's response the disastrous event has been relatively mild. There was no military response from them, and Saudi Arabia's response was limited to a literal counterattack. The United States proclaimed in a statement Washington DC, that the attack was carried out by the Iran, however that Saudi Arabia should provide evidence, in order for Saudi Arabia to openly affirm the proclamation made by the US. Eventually would have given the United States a legit reason to take direct military action against Iran for attacking their national interest. Unfortunately for US, in reality, however, nothing like that ever, happened. Maybe, US has to try harder next time.
The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is closest ally of Saudi Arabia's and part of GCC and OIC. The Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) is the principal mentor of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia. If Mohammed bin Salman wants to go ahead and take charge of the state, prepare him for it, or try to open up the Saudi economy, or go one extra mile and make Saudi society more advanced and inclusive, Mohammed bin Zayed is mentoring, guiding and helping him. Nevertheless, in Yemen, there is a iterative and never-ending civil war between the Iranian-backed Huthi rebels and the Saudi-dominated government. Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are still working together, however the ground seems to be shaky now, due to the conflict of interest, rigidness of KSA and liberalisation of UAE, thus their alliance seems to be slowly coming to an end.
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In July 2019, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) announced to stop its military and allied operations in Yemen to help resolve the discomfort and conflicts int he region through dialogues and negotiations. "We are making this change in order to pursue a policy to prioritise peace in the region," said a spokesman for the United Arab Emirates.
Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is expected to learn an important lesson from the UAE's policy shift and coming to certain terms. Some time ago, there were military clashes and regional confrontations between the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Islamic Republic of Iran in the Gulf of Oman. Oil tankers were attacked. however, the UAE tried to ease the tension. If there is a war with Iran, it is clear that there will be attacks on world-renowned economic centres, such as Dubai. Eventually as a outcome of the war, the UAE's economy could collapse, this was foreseen and UAE and thus decide to ease the tension with Iran. UAEs' economic success achieved until now, a stable country, the beautiful princes of the middle east UAE a responsible and prosperous centre in the world economy (Beauty wit Brain) would have to lose all its virtues and rest everything.
Lingering fear of possible negative impact on global oil trade also helped ease tensions between these two nations. Although Mohammed bin Salman has blamed Iran for the attacks on oil wells, he is not as enthusiastic about direct military action against Iran as his friends in the Washington DC, United States.
Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince does not give public interviews so often, but recently gave an appeared on an interview in which he clearly mentioned that if a war broke out, it would have a devastating effect on oil prices globally, which could also have disastrous effect not only on the economy of Middle East but also on the the global economy as whole.
The United States broadly claimed the attacks on oil fields of Abkak as a "WAR" and Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) has supported the US claim. Reiterated US Secretary of Defense Mike Pompeo's remarks; However KSAs' dismissal for any military strike has turned the tide on US intentions for full-fledged war.
The role of Riyadh and Washington in the ongoing dispute between the three nations, the United States, Iran and Saudi Arabia, seems to be moving in a different direction. For sometime in the past few months, Iran has trampled on a number of issues. Both the United States and Saudi Arabia have been consistently strong in this regard. Despite this, KSA ask USA has maintained there difference of opinion over the issued of attack on Abkaks' oil field.
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Now running the thought process from the national perspective India imports a large amount of oil. Moreover, these GCC countries are home to a large number of Indians workers, powering their businesses. If there is a war over oil, India can have tremendous adverse effect both these aspects. Along with India, there is China, South Korea, Japan are the major oil consuming countries in Asia. All these other Asian nations seems to have a wise stand of not to indulge into this argument between Middle-East and the West. This policy of keeping safe distance from both parties seems succeeding to a large extent.
India has also managed to maintain its friendly and diplomatic relations with both Saudi Arabia and Iran. However, India has been forced to reduce its oil imports from Iran by the US, while Riyadh and the United Arab Emirates have promised to invest heavily in India.
India's is exhausting while taking care of both sides. Earlier this month, Indian Foreign Secretary Vijay Gokhale visited Islamic Republic of Iran. Hence, Indian minister of External Affairs V. Muralitharan held dialogues with the foreign ministers of Iraq and Kuwait. Prime Minister Narendra Modi managed to get hold on Iranian President Hassan Rouhani for the regular meet, under the UN General Assembly umbrella.
Very recently much-decorated meeting of Prime Minister Modi in Houston forwarded by the Trump. During the visit, Trump refrained himself from directly criticising Pakistan as a major supporter of terrorism, but repeatedly said that he was much eager to mediate between India and Pakistan on Jammu & Kashmir issue, however to which Indian counterpart showed no interest . Therefore, it seems clear from Trump's perspective, that India strategy must align to support and praise to whatever US position on Iran and in return, United States will think of tightens its noose around Pakistan's neck. Its all international political business, of give and take.
There has been such a big attack in Saudi Arabia, but due to KSA's mature approach to maintain peace in the reason the situation is still likely to improve. This is important decision from the regional political situation and for global economic stability. However, the use of drones and advance technology has set a new precedent in the wars that Riyadh and Tehran are fighting. The region will till continue to be unsettled by armed groups in Syria, interference in Iraq's internal politics, the civil war in Yemen, and attacks on trade routes through the Gulf of Iran. If there is a serious incident, Riyadh and Abu Dhabi will suffer more than Tehran.
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