If Pakistan is really willing to try to improve relations with India, it should also consider India's views on the Afghanistan issue.
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Negotiations between the US and the Taliban have now taken a different turn. A recent article in The Express Tribune said that the talks in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) proposed large-scale financial assistance from the United States. In return, they demanded permission to maintain a military base in Afghanistan and guarantee that the Western world would not be harmed on Afghan soil. The article goes on to say that Pakistan's Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi visited foreign countries to persuade China, Russia and Iran on the same issue .
There is nothing surprising in the reconciliation between the Taliban and the US. After all, they are old friends who joined the war against the Soviet Union in the 1980's. In his book, The Taliban: The Power of Militant Islam in Afghanistan and Beyond, the Taliban and their members forged ties with the United States to seek economic opportunities in Central Asia, Afghanistan, Pakistan and the United States.
From the perspective of ending decades of violence in Afghanistan, the terms and conditions put forward by both groups seem appropriate. These conditions can be claimed as a victory for both parties. Allowing the United States to maintain a military base in Afghanistan will allow the United States to monitor the activities of the Taliban as well as other terrorist organizations in the Afghan-Pakistani region. Also, the US will benefit from these military bases to achieve its strategic objectives in the Afghan-Pakistan region . The bases will also be used to monitor Iran's emerging nuclear capabilities. While the US presence in the region is difficult for Russia and China, it is keen to control violent groups in Afghanistan .
If the internal violence in Afghanistan does not subside and spread to the surrounding region, both Russia and China will face new crises and challenges. Also, given Russia and China's economic interests in the region , the news that US military bases will remain in Afghanistan is positive for both Russia and China.
If the Taliban's offer of an agreement to the United States is approved, the decision by the United States to withdraw some troops will be a victory for them. The proposed agreement gives the Taliban legitimacy not only locally but also internationally, which they have been demanding for a long time. In 1996, when the Taliban government came to power, very few countries recognized it . The deal would give the Taliban enough time to increase their political clout in Afghanistan.
While the US-Taliban agreement will create a climate of short-term political stability and reduce violence, the question remains as to how long the proposed system will last.
How long can the Taliban tolerate the active functional reality of US military bases in Afghanistan? Also, there will be a lot of ambiguity on the issue of power-sharing in the new political situation in Afghanistan. Will the Taliban compromise and accept the division of political power and space with other political elements in Afghanistan? This question needs to be considered by the United States, the local elements and the international community outside Afghanistan.
It is also expected that the Taliban will agree to all terms and conditions for the US to withdraw some of its troops from Afghanistan and then withdraw from the agreement. Pakistan has been involved in the formation of the Taliban since the 1990s . There is also a possibility that they are now encouraging the Taliban to cooperate with the United States in order to reduce American bases in Afghanistan. This could once again strengthen Pakistan 's strategic position in the region .
India had emphasized that it would welcome any Afghan-led solution to the Afghanistan problem . But the initiative to negotiate with the Taliban appears to be Pakistan-inspired.
It is worrying that the US has not shown any interest in getting assurances from the Taliban that it will not take any action that would endanger the security of countries like India.
A partial US withdrawal from Afghanistan would raise security concerns in the region. Concerns are also being raised that this would allow Pakistan to take anti-India action from Afghanistan. If India expresses this concern, it is not a mistake.
For the past few months, the Pakistani government has been signaling its desire to reconcile with India. If Pakistan is really willing to try to improve relations between the two countries, it should also consider India's views on the Afghanistan issue. But according to Vikram Sood, former head of India's Research and Analysis Department (R&AW), Pakistan is deliberately ignoring India in its dealings with Afghanistan. Pakistan is just trying to keep its eastern border calm on the Indian side and will use this peace period to build its strategy.
Even if US President Trump seeks Pakistan's help in signing a deal with the Taliban, India must insist that it needs to control Pakistan to prevent it from making destabilizing moves in Afghanistan. India should urge all countries to restrict international financial and military assistance to Pakistan so that it does not spread instability in Afghanistan in the near future . Any investment made in Pakistan at this crucial juncture in the Afghanistan crisis will be used by Pakistan's security apparatus to strengthen the Taliban and further Pakistan's political and military goals.
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